Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
900 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT TEXT ZONE FORECASTS LOOK FINE WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR
OVERNIGHT. SEASONABLY STRONG SPRING STORM AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL NM PREPARING TO EJECT INTO THE SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TSTM TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM AREA ADVECTION REGIME
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.

ONLY PLAN TO ROUTINELY MINOR EDIT GRIDDED FORECASTS AND HOURLY
GRIDDED FORECASTS THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOUR WITH NO EFFECT ON TEXT
FORECASTS.  VIII.

&&

.AVIATION...
MID AND UPPER LVL CLOUDS ACROSS REGION WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL
LOWERING TREND DURING THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO BEGIN TO FALL
TO MVFR BY AROUND 12Z...WITH SOME IFR CIGS BEFORE 18Z. SCT TSTMS
MAY REACH NE TX BY AROUND 06Z...WITH STRONGER STORMS ARRIVING AFTER
12Z SUNDAY. E-SE WINDS 5-10 KTS FOR MOST OF NIGHT...BECMG SE-S AND
INCREASE AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. THREAT OF SVR WX AND HEAVY RAIN...MORE OF
SVR THREAT SOUTH OF I-20...HEAVY RAIN NORTH OF INTERSTATE./VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  68  55  69  47 /  50 100  40  20  10
MLU  53  65  56  70  46 /  30 100  50  20  10
DEQ  50  63  51  62  41 /  60 100  50  20  10
TXK  53  64  52  66  45 /  50 100  50  20  10
ELD  52  64  53  69  43 /  40 100  50  20  10
TYR  55  69  53  69  48 /  70 100  20  20  10
GGG  54  68  52  69  47 /  60 100  30  20  10
LFK  57  71  57  73  48 /  60 100  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

08/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
102 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-012>014-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-121100-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-
102 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE FOUR STATE
REGION. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
RISK WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS. TORNADOES
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY
OF A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
SOUTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TEXAS TO COLUMBIA LOUISIANA LINE.

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE SEEN ACROSS NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTH ARKANSAS...AND NORTH LOUISIANA
SUNDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 3 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND NEXT SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. LATER FORECASTS WILL
BETTER DEFINE THE TIMING AND WHAT...IF ANY...SEVERE WEATHER RISK
EXISTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTER GROUPS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL...AND HAM RADIO OPERATORS WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH
TONIGHT. ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY.

LAZ010-011-017>022-TXZ149>153-165>167-121100-
DE SOTO-RED RIVER-SABINE LA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-
LA SALLE-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
102 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE TEXAS
TO COLUMBIA LOUISIANA LINE SUNDAY. ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BRING
THE RISK OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
GREATEST RISK OF TORNADOES WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN VICINITY OF A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION.

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE SEEN ACROSS DEEP EAST
TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA SUNDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 2
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND NEXT SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. LATER FORECASTS WILL
BETTER DEFINE THE TIMING AND WHAT...IF ANY...SEVERE WEATHER RISK
EXISTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTER GROUPS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL...AND HAM RADIO OPERATORS WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH
TONIGHT. ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY.

BUTTS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1237 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1156 PM     HAIL             GARVIN                  33.95N 94.94W
04/11/2009  E1.00 INCH       MCCURTAIN          OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1207 AM     HAIL             IDABEL                  33.90N 94.82W
04/12/2009  E1.00 INCH       MCCURTAIN          OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL ON WEST SIDE OF IDABEL

&&

12