Severe Thunderstorm Warning 368, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
317 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009

.DISCUSSION...
BKN LINE OF CONVECTION GRADUALLY BECMG BETTER ORGANISED...OUT
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT STILL JUST OUTSIDE CWA. CONVECTION BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING...AND INCREASE ACROSS LA PORTIONS OF
AREA BY OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNDEASONALLY BALMY DEWPOINTS IN LOWER
TO MID 60S...SPREADING INTO AREA AND MAY SEE INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL RATES. COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU CWA BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME POSTFRONTAL RAIN EXPECTED...AS IS SEEN CURRENTLY
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OK. UPER LVL TROF...SEEN ON SATELLITE
MOVING INTO NORTHERN KS...WILL BRING AN END TO PCPN FROM THE NORTH
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...CLOSED UPPER LOW SLIDING INTO NW
MEXICO...WILL MOVE INTO THE BIG BEND TX AREA TUE AFTN. BASING
TRACK OF LOW WITH ECMWF...WHICH IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH SLOWER NAM
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS MORE REASONABLE CONSIDERING HOW CLOSED THIS
LOW PRESSURE IS...WELL SEPARATED FROM MAIN UPPER JET...MOVING INTO
GREAT LAKES REGION. A HEAVY CIRRUS CANOPY WILL SPREAD ACROSS AREA
LATE MONDAY...THUS ANY CLEARING SKIES...MAINLY NORTHERN CWA...WILL
BE BRIEF. ALTHOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTLY DICTATE WHETHER OVERRUNNING
RAIN FIELDS ADVANCE FROM THE WEST...OR BUILD NORTHWARD FROM THE COAST...
LEANING ON A MORE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT...WITH AREAS NEAR LA/TX
COASTS RECEIEVING GREATEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. SOME INITIAL
CONCERNS FOR LIGHT SNOW...OR RAIN SNOW MIX...PUT ON HOLD WITH
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...WHILE KEEPING HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...NOT IN GOOD ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT OVER RED RIVER
VALLEY REGION TO INCLUDE IN FCST YET.

AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES NEARLY OVERHEAD ACROSS AREA...TAPER OFF
POPS WED NIGHT...AND PLACE NEAR FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS CWA THU
NIGHT AS A 1030 MB HIGH SHIFTS INTO AREA...WITH DECENT RADIATION
COOLING EXPECTED. SFC LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER PANHANDLE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND...MODERATING TEMPS AND PROVIDING AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE
OF RAIN. HINTS OF POLAR COLD AIRMASS...IN FORM OF 1050 MB
HIGH...FILTERING SOUTH OF EXTREME WESTERN CANADA...WHICH MAY
PROVIDE EVEN COLDER TEMPS TO THE AREA...AFTER END OF EXTENDED FCST PERIOD./VII/

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ATTM JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOCATED
FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO THE DFW METRO AREA.  EXPECT VSBYS TO DROP
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND CIGS TO FALL TO IFR NEAR THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUST TO NEAR
20 IN SOME LOCATIONS.  FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH TYR AND TXK AROUND
03Z...SHV AROUND 06Z...MLU AND LFK AROUND 10Z.  IFR CIGS AND SHRA
ACTIVITY WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH A CHANCE TO BREAK OUT AT THE END OF THIS CYCLE. /04/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  60  42  56  47 /  90  20  10  50  70
MLU  53  60  42  56  49 /  90  30  10  50  70
DEQ  44  54  37  57  44 /  80  10   0  30  60
TXK  46  56  39  57  45 /  80  10   0  30  60
ELD  50  58  38  57  46 /  90  20   0  30  60
TYR  47  55  42  55  46 /  70  10  10  60  70
GGG  49  58  42  55  46 /  70  10  10  60  70
LFK  57  61  44  52  48 /  80  40  30  60  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1142 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-301745-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1142 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE DALLAS AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON....AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR BY LATER
IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES EXPECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF A JACKSONVILLE AND LONGVIEW
TEXAS...TO EL DORADO ARKANSAS LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL RETURN TO THE AREA MID WEEK AS A CLOSED UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD...WITH RAINFALL DIMINISHING BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

VII

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
428 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009

TXZ124-292315-
WOOD-
428 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 515 PM CST...FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
     WOOD...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     GOLDEN...HAINESVILLE...MINEOLA...PLEASANT GROVE...QUITMAN AND
     WINNSBORO...

AT 425 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS ARE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GOLDEN...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MINEOLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PARKER