Severe Thunderstorm Warning 342, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
445 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO TRACK JUST SOUTH
AND EAST OF COLD FRONT...AND JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 30. RAINFALL RATES NOT EXTREME...BUT TRAINING EFFECTS
OF RAINFALL ONGOING. SOME INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE TODAY...AS TROF
DIGS SOUTHWARD...ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET OVER SOUTH TX WILL
SEE AROUND 50 KTS...AND DOWNSTREAM OVER SOUTHERN MO...MAY SEE JET
SPEEDS AT LEAST 100 KTS...IN ADDITION TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT
DIRECTIONAL DIVERGENCE COMPONENT AS WELL. RADAR INDICATING THIN
STREAMERS OF CONVECTION OVER WARM SECTOR...SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO
BEGIN FILLING IN ADVANCE OF MCS. STRENGTH OF COLD FRONT INDICATED
BY FROPA THRU TERRELL TX...BRINGING DEWPOINTS DOWN AT LEAST 10
DEGREES IN ONE HOUR. CAPES BUILDING IN EAST TX...MAY SEE STORMS
GET STRONGER OVER THAT REGION BY AFTN. IN THE MEANTIME...CLOUD
TOPS ON SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND DO NOT SEE LARGE THREAT OF SVR WX
GOING BY CURRENT TRENDS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL POTENTIAL DOES WARRANT
AT LEAST MAINTAINING FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTH SECTIONS OF CWA.
ALTHOUGH THIS COLD FRONT WILL END PCPN OVER RED RIVER VALLEY
REGION BY LATER THIS EVE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL PLAINS...IN STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT...HELPING WITH MOISTURE
RETURN...BRINGING LEFTOVER FRONT NEAR GULF COAST...BACK NORTHWARD
INTO AREA. THIS PCPN FOR FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK CONFINED MOSTLY
TO SOUTHERN CWA...AND CONVECTION SHOULD BE WEEK. SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OVER PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY BRING BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT./VII/

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE ADVANCING SE INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTION...LOW CIGS/FLIGHT CATEGORIES CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS PRESENT OVER AREA TERMINALS.  IT IS
STILL POSSIBLE THAT A FEW AIRPORTS MAY SEE IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE
TO LOW CIGS PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION.

IT APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT TERMINALS NW OF
A KTYR-KGGG-KSHV-KBLR LINE BY 09/1200 UTC...THEN MOVE SE TOWARD
KELD...KMLU...AND KLFK BETWEEN 09/1200-1500 UTC.  PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE SEEN OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 09/1800 UTC.  LOW
FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AT TIMES FOR SEVERAL HOURS
ONCE PRECIPITATION STARTS TO FALL.  WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
NW-N IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH PRECIPITATION STARTING TO WANE FROM
THE NW AFTER 09/1800 UTC.  /D. BUTTS/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  54  68  55  72 /  60  40  10  10  20
MLU  77  55  65  52  72 /  70  70  20  20  30
DEQ  67  46  67  44  71 /  90  20  10  10  10
TXK  68  49  68  50  70 /  90  40  10  10  10
ELD  72  52  67  49  72 /  70  40  10  10  20
TYR  69  50  72  53  71 /  60  20  10  10  10
GGG  71  50  71  51  71 /  60  40  10  10  20
LFK  74  54  73  57  71 /  70  40  20  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070-071.

LA...NONE.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
750 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

ARZ050-051-059-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149-150-
152-165-101300-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-
TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-
CHEROKEE-RUSK-NACOGDOCHES-ANGELINA-
750 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

 LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...NEAR A SLOWLY
MOVING COLD FRONT. DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SATURATED GROUND WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED AREAS
OF HIGH WATER WHERE FLOODING PREVIOUSLY OCCURRED. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA... UNTIL 4 PM
THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA BY
AROUND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ARZ060-061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ151-153-166-167-
101300-
HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-
WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-
JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-
LA SALLE-PANOLA-SHELBY-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
750 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE LEADING EDGE OF A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...
AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD VERY STRONG
TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF STORMS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY
RAIN OF TWO TO NEAR FOUR INCHES OF RAIN MAY ALSO OCCUR...RESULTING
IN AREAS OF FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR A
PORTION OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY TODAY...
DUE TO THE HISTORY OF WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WITH THESE STORMS.

VII

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
800 AM CDT FRI OCT 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BRADLEY                 33.10N 93.66W
10/09/2009                   LAFAYETTE          AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

&&

ASTEVENS

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