Severe Thunderstorm Warning 285, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
419 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...

A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY FOR THE I20 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHWARD...AS MORE HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. SO
FAR THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN JUST NORTH OF I30...AS RADAR
ESTIMATES STORM TOTALS OF 5 PLUS INCHES IN MC CURTAIN...SEVIER...AND
LITTLE RIVER COUNTIES. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ESCORT A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS PERIOD...SO A DECENT
CHANCE OF RAINFALL REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AROUND THE I30 CORRIDOR AGAIN TODAY...SO
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL AS CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM GROWTH. THE MODELS BRING
SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE AREA...THIS EVENING SO
POPS TREND A LITTLE LOWER. HOWEVER CHANCE POPS REMAIN TO RESPECT
THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE ACCOMPANYING DISTURBANCES. ANOTHER VERY
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...THEN POPS START A
DOWNWARD TREND AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. TRIED TO KEEP
CONSISTENCY IN SHORT TERM TEMPS...BUT I WARMED UP A LITTLE IN THE
EXTENDED TO MOVE CLOSER TO GUIDANCE.

ELEVEN

&&

.AVIATION...

KSHV CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE PD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY VRB WINDS
WILL OCCUR WITH CONVECTION. PDS OF SLY WINDS AT 5 TO 8 MPH AND VFR
MID DECK MIXED IN WILL OCCUR INTERMITTENTLY BETWEEN ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  73  91  76  92 /  90  40  50  40  60
MLU  82  72  90  73  92 / 100  50  50  40  60
DEQ  84  70  88  73  86 /  60  50  50  40  60
TXK  83  71  89  75  89 /  80  50  50  40  60
ELD  81  71  88  74  90 / 100  50  50  40  60
TYR  88  73  92  77  92 /  60  40  40  30  60
GGG  86  73  92  76  92 /  60  40  40  30  60
LFK  88  74  93  76  94 /  60  40  40  30  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LAZ001>006-012>014.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

11/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
617 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-012>014-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-281730-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-
617 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE I20 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AS MORE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE FOUR STATE
AREA TODAY. SEVERAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED THIS
MORNING WHERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DROPPED MORE THAN AN INCH
OF RAIN. FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE
AN ADDITIONAL TWO TO THREE INCHES FALL NORTH OF THE I20 CORRIDOR.

CLOUDS AND RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD INHIBIT THE ATMOSPHERE FROM
BECOMING PRIMED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER SEVERAL ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM HAVE SHOWN SOME ROTATION THIS MORNING...A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OR TORNADOES WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEEK CONTINUES...WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORECASTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. FLOODING
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
CITIZENS SHOULD MONITOR THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK DAILY FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LAZ010-011-017>022-TXZ149>153-165>167-281730-
DE SOTO-RED RIVER-SABINE LA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-
LA SALLE-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
617 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NO FLOODING PROBLEMS SHOULD BE OBSERVED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20...HOWEVER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEATHER MAY TO BE MONITORED IN
THIS AREA. WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR DECENT DAYTIME HEATING...THE
ATMOSPHERE MAY BECOME PRIMED QUICKLY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SMALL HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
HAVE TO MONITORED ON THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

N ACTIVE WEEK CONTINUES...WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORECASTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. FLOODING
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
CITIZENS SHOULD MONITOR THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK DAILY FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PARKER

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