Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1023 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2009

...NO FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE MADE AT THIS TIME...

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS
MORNING.  WITH A PLETHORA OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES IN PLACE...A
LITTLE BIT OF REDEVELOPMENT COULD TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.  SPEAKING OF...THE FRONT HAS STARTED ENCROACHING UPON
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  IT SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...DRIVEN BY A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS.

AFTER LOOKING AT THINGS...I FEEL THE OVERALL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
IS NEXT TO NOTHING.  LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK /GENERALLY
ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 KNOTS/.  EVEN THOUGH THESE VALUES COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT...THE LACK OF STRONGER
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY DOWN A
BIT.  IF WE CAN GET MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN ENOUGH...I
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED HAIL-PRODUCING STORM.  THAT SHOULD BE
THE EXCEPTION AND NOT THE RULE THOUGH...AND WILL DOWNPLAY ANY SEVERE
WEATHER RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST TO APPROACH 2 INCHES NEAR THE FRONT.  THIS COULD MAKE SOME
EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.  THE RESULT
COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.

OVERALL...THE ONGOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN DECENT SHAPE AND
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME.  /21/

&&

.AVIATION...
SE MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG A LINE FROM KELD...TO KSHV MAY KICK
OFF A FEW TSRA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH AS OUTFLOW WASHES OUT. ALSO...A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER FROM
THE EARLY MORNING MCS REMAIN ACROSS SW AR...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIE OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS WELL. COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE
ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM KNLC...TO KCRS...TO KCLL. THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING IN THE N
AND W AND THROUGH THE SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING...
ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SCT IN
NATURE. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...AND/OR
WITH FROPA. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE...
AND WILL LIKELY NOT LIFT UNTIL MIDDAY THURSDAY. SE WINDS 5-10 KT
WILL BECOME NW AT 3-5 KT OVERNIGHT AFTER FROPA. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  64  82  61  89 /  50  50  10   0   0
MLU  88  67  79  61  86 /  50  70  30   0   0
DEQ  80  59  80  56  87 /  80  50  10   0   0
TXK  83  62  78  59  87 /  60  50  10   0   0
ELD  86  62  78  56  86 /  60  70  20   0   0
TYR  85  63  83  61  89 /  50  30  10   0   0
GGG  86  64  82  59  89 /  50  40  10   0   0
LFK  89  66  85  62  91 /  50  40  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC FORECASTER...D. BUTTS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER FORECASTER...RICHARDSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1120 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2009

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-041100-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1120 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
IN VICINITY OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAIL SMALLER THAN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
IN DIAMETER. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER
THOUGH IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTER GROUPS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

D. BUTTS