Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
840 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...THUS ANY FURTHER REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

HOWEVER...FURTHER UPSTREAM...A WHOLE DIFFERENT SCENARIO IS TRYING
TO TAKE SHAPE. MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WAS UNTOUCHED FROM CONVECTION EARLIER
TODAY...THUS INSTABILITY IS STILL RATHER STRONG ACROSS THE MIDDLE
RED RIVER VALLEY. COMBINE THIS WITH A NORTH TO SOUTH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE PRESENT CONVECTION IS
FEEDING OFF OF NEAR THE DFW METROPLEX AND IS TRYING TO EXPAND
NORTH AND EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER. 00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING
STRONG COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS CONVECTION...EXTENDING FROM NEAR PNC
AND SPS ONTO NEAR LBB. FRONT IS MAKING MUCH QUICKER PROGRESS THAN
18Z PROGS INDICATED SO FOR THE UPDATE...WILL FOLLOW THE LATEST RUC
GUIDANCE WHICH HAS THE FRONT ENTERING OUR EXTREME NW ZONES DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS.

LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE VARIETY FOR OUR EASTERN TWO THIRDS
BUT DID KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING IN OUR WEST AND NW ZONES JUST IN
CASE PREFRONTAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. OTHERWISE...
FEEL LIKE WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ON THE
FRONT ITSELF BUT THAT WOULD BE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPS IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
QUIET IN THE WAKE OF AN AFTERNOON UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOW
PUSHING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  FARTHER WEST...ANOTHER GENTLE
PUSH OVER MEXICO HAS MORE CONVECTION OVER THE RIO GRANDE AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS ALONG AN OUTFLOW. ALSO...A COLD FRONT IS
POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HRS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY DEVELOP/ORGANIZE OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY 12Z AFFECTING TERMINALS FROM WEST
TO EAST. OTHERWISE...VISIBILITIES OF 3SM AND SOME ISOLATED IFR DECKS
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS RAIN SOAKED SITES 12Z TO 15Z...FOLLOWED BY
OTHER REDUCTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH IMPENDING WEATHER. OTHERWISE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NW 10KTS AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY KTYR BY 12Z TO
KMLU BY 21Z. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  83  62  84  61 /  20  40  20  10  10
MLU  69  87  65  84  63 /  20  50  20  10  10
DEQ  64  78  56  81  56 /  20  30  10  10  10
TXK  66  81  60  82  60 /  20  30  10  10  10
ELD  67  84  61  83  58 /  20  30  20  10  10
TYR  67  81  62  84  59 /  30  70  10  10   0
GGG  67  81  60  84  58 /  20  40  10  10  10
LFK  69  83  64  84  60 /  20  50  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

13/24

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