Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
515 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FOUR
STATE REGION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...
HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST PULL IN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST LATER DURING THE DAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH AND DAMAGING WINDS.
WILL BE ISSUING A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO REPLACE THE
PREVIOUS THAT COVERS ALL OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. RAINS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...
AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA. THERE WILL
BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF NO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND FOR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH A SLIGHT NORTHWEST
FLOW/NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER HALF OF THE COUNTRY
UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. /06/

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
MAKE STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH CEILINGS HOVERING BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR IN AND OUT OF STORMS. NEW CONVECTION FIRING NEAR THE I-35
CORRIDOR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP ALL TERMINALS IN AND OUT OF THUNDER THROUGH AT LEAST MUCH OF
THE MORNING. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY
MIDDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. NOT CONFIDENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT
OF LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND AND MAY NEED TO
MENTION MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. /13/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  59  78  60  82 /  90  40  10  10  20
MLU  79  62  76  57  83 /  90  50  20  10  20
DEQ  68  53  74  57  77 /  70  30  10  20  40
TXK  72  55  75  57  80 /  80  40  10  20  40
ELD  75  57  75  57  80 /  90  40  20  10  30
TYR  75  57  77  60  84 /  80  40  10  10  20
GGG  76  58  78  60  83 /  80  40  10  10  10
LFK  80  62  81  63  86 /  90  40  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     TXZ126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124-125.

&&

06/13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009

ARZ072-LAZ001-002-010-TXZ126-136>138-149>151-031100-
BOSSIER-CADDO-CHEROKEE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-GREGG-HARRISON-MARION-PANOLA-
RUSK-SMITH-
1200 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AS WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIR COMBINE WITH UPPER
DISTURBANCES AND A COLD FRONT WRAPPING SOUTHEAST AROUND A SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE RED RIVER IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS
TO BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED HIGH
AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE WRAPPING AROUND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA SUNDAY. THIS COMBINATION
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ENDING. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES BY EARLY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF HAM RADIO OPERATORS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS...AND
STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

ARZ073-LAZ003>006-011>014-017>022-TXZ152-153-165>167-031100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-CALDWELL-CLAIBORNE-GRANT-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LINCOLN-
NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-OUACHITA-RED RIVER LA-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SHELBY-UNION AR-UNION LA-WEBSTER-WINN-
1200 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...WITH NO SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO ENHANCE LIFT...STORMS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE WRAPPING AROUND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA SUNDAY. THIS COMBINATION
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD INTO EARLY
MONDAY BEFORE ENDING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 3 TO 4 INCHES BY EARLY
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF HAM RADIO OPERATORS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS...AND
STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT...
BUT MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SUNDAY.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070-071-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124-125-031100-
BOWIE-CAMP-CASS-FRANKLIN-HEMPSTEAD-HOWARD-LAFAYETTE-LITTLE RIVER-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NEVADA-RED RIVER TX-SEVIER-TITUS-UPSHUR-WOOD-
1200 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND CARRY OVER THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
WRAPPING AROUND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SHOWERS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...TRAINING OVER THE SAME
AREAS...ALONG WITH SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WILL BE 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS TO NEAR 6 TO 7 INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA BY SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT WRAPPING SOUTHWEST
THROUGH EAST TEXAS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OCCURRING ALONG AND NEAR THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS IN WAKE OF BOUNDARY
AND LOW. THIS WILL PROLONG LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL IN THE COLDER AIR. RAINFALL TOTALS INTO MONDAY WILL BE
4 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO JUST OVER 8 INCHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF HAM RADIO OPERATORS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS...AND
STORM SPOTTERS COULD POSSIBLY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

VII

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
509 AM CDT SUN MAY 03 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     FLASH FLOOD      DAINGERFIELD            33.03N 94.72W
05/03/2009                   MORRIS             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MORRIS COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTS SEVERAL ROADS
            ACROSS THE COUNTY ARE UNDER WATER.

&&

18