Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
652 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

.UPDATE...

WENT AHEAD AND SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL COUNTIES
ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WATCH NUMBER 212. THE CHARACTER OF THIS SYSTEM HAS
BEEN EVOLVING RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. MAIN LINEAR
FEATURE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND EXTENDS FROM HOT SPRINGS ARKANSAS TO
JUST NORTH OF SHREVEPORT. THIS ACTIVITY HAS PROMPTED THE EXTENSION
OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

ALSO...FARTHER WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS NORTH OF A LINE
FROM TYLER TO DALLAS/FORT WORTH...A SECOND SURGE OF CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO GENERATE AND TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS ACTIVITY FOR FLASH FLOOD AND/OR ADDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER ACTIVITY. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON REMOVING ANY
COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH AT THIS TIME. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009/

DISCUSSION...
WHAT A START TO THE DAY. LARGE MCS BARRELING TOWARD THE FOUR
STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND ARRIVING DURING PEAK HEATING.
INSTABILITIES RUNNING CLOSE TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF EAST
TX...WESTERN LA...AND SW ARKANSAS. PROMINENT BOW FEATURE MOVING
ACROSS MCCURTAIN COUNTY RESPONSIBLE FOR LONG PATH OF WIND DAMAGE
ACROSS SOUTHERN OK. THE PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT IT WASNT
FORECAST WELL BY THE MODELS AND IT IS LAYING AN EAST WEST BOUNDARY
PERPENDICULAR TO THE INFLOW. A COOL POOL BEHIND THE MID LEVEL
SYSTEM IS SETTING UP A CLASSIC MESO HIGH FLASH FLOOD TYPE EVENT.
THIS COMPLICATES THINGS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE
IT. A FFW WAS ISSUED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING CELLS WITH THE
BOUNDARY. FWD SOUNDING WAS A LITTLE MORE SATURATED THAN SHV..BUT
THERE WERE NO PROMINENT DRY LAYERS IN EITHER WHICH WILL AID IN
RAINFALL RATES. AREAS IN FWD AREA ALREADY REPORTING FLOODING
ACROSS THE COUNTIES NEAR THE RED RIVER. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY MORNING
HOURS TOMORROW...BUT THE PLACEMENT IN THE MODELS IS LIKELY OFF
SINCE THEY CANNOT ACCOUNT FOR THE MESOSCALE MOVEMENTS OF THE LINE.
THE SEVERE THREAT IS AND HAS BEEN CONFINED TO NEAR THE MID LEVEL
VORTEX WHICH HAS BEEN PRODUCING A PERSISTENT COMMA HEAD ACROSS
SOUTHERN OK. THUS FAR DAMAGING WINDS HAVE BEEN THE BIGGEST PROBLEM
AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS LONG AS INSTIBILITY
REMAINS HIGH.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT RETREATS TO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS. SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK
PUTS MOST AREAS NORTH OF I30 IN A SLIGHT RISK SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AS THE FRONT SURGES BACK TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE
SWINGING THROUGH A LONGER WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THE
MAIN SHOW LOOKS TO BE WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS ON
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER AND FASTER WITH THIS WAVE THAN
THE GFS..BUT IN EITHER CASE SUNDAY COULD BE QUITE ACTIVE IN THE
AREA. THE GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN THE TIMING WITH THE ACTIVITY
MOVING INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT A ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. LOOKS ACTIVE
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES IS SLOWLY PUSHING TSTM COMPLEX
ALONG THE RED RIVER INTO SW AR ATTM.  THIS FEATURE MAY STILL TAIL
DOWN INTO THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS INSTABILITY IS MOUNTING.  TXK WILL
LIKELY BE AFFECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.  OTHERS TERMINALS ALONG
I-20 CORRIDOR WILL NEED AMENDING SHOULD THE SYSTEM EXTEND SOUTHWARD
BEFORE SUNSET.  OVERNIGHT EVOLUTION IS STILL UNCERTAIN WITH THIS
COMPLEX.  OTHERWISE...LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND
OVERSPREAD CWA AFTER 06Z THRU ABOUT 15Z. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAIN
THREAT ATTM FOR I-30 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...SFC WINDS SSE AROUND 10
TO 15KTS DIMINISHING A BIT OVERNIGHT. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  82  68  85  65 /  70  30  10  10  20
MLU  62  82  66  85  63 /  50  40  10  10  10
DEQ  61  78  63  81  59 /  90  40  20  10  40
TXK  62  79  66  83  62 /  90  40  10  10  30
ELD  62  79  65  83  62 /  80  40  10  10  20
TYR  64  82  68  84  65 /  70  10  10  10  20
GGG  64  82  68  84  65 /  70  20  10  10  20
LFK  66  84  69  85  66 /  50  10  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...NONE.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126.

&&

05/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1205 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>013-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165-301715-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
1205 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. A
LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
BECOMING UNSTABLE ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL AID
IN THE THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY. ALSO...DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE ATMOSPHERE...THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE FLOODING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COUNTIES ALONG AND NEAR THE RED RIVER AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WILL BE MOST AT RISK TODAY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE FOUR STATE REGION
ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTEROON INTO THIS EVENING.
SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LAZ014-017>022-TXZ166-167-301715-
OUACHITA-SABINE LA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1205 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE FOUR STATE REGION
ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
421 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

TXZ097-109-111-112-292215-
BOWIE-CASS-MORRIS-TITUS-
421 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 515 PM CDT...FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
     BOWIE...TITUS...MORRIS AND CASS...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     CASON...COOKVILLE...DAINGERFIELD...DALBY SPRINGS...HUGHES
     SPRINGS...JENKINS...NAPLES...OMAHA...

AT 420 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR COOKVILLE...OR NEAR MOUNT PLEASANT...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

03

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
619 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 W LINDEN             33.01N 94.53W
04/29/2009  E70 MPH          CASS               TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED ESTIMATED 70 MPH WIND GUST ON
            HWY 11, ABOUT 10 WEST OF LINDEN.

0540 PM     TSTM WND DMG     11 S ATLANTA            32.96N 94.19W
04/29/2009                   CASS               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTS SEVERAL TREES DOWN ALL ACROSS
            CASS COUNTY.

&&

18

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
623 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

ARZ061-071-072-300015-
COLUMBIA-LAFAYETTE-NEVADA-
623 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 715 PM CDT...FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
     NEVADA...COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     ATLANTA...BODCAW...BRADLEY...BUCKNER...BUSSEY...CANFIELD...
     EMERSON...LEWISVILLE...MACEDONIA...MAGNOLIA...MCNEIL...
     SMITHLAND...STAMPS...TAYLOR...VILLAGE...WALDO...WELCOME AND
     WILLISVILLE...

AT 621 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WILLISVILLE TO
BRADLEY...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTH OF WALDO TO
10 MILES WEST OF SPRINGHILL...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS ALONG WITH VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

04

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
633 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ATLANTA                 33.12N 94.16W
04/29/2009                   CASS               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ATLANTA POLICE DEPT REPORTS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN IN
            TOWN.

&&

18

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
643 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FOUKE                   33.26N 93.89W
04/29/2009                   MILLER             AR   PUBLIC

            MEMBER OF THE PUBLIC REPORTED A GARAGE DAMAGED BY STRONG
            WINDS.

&&

18