River Flood Warning 76, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
538 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...

FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE WET FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR AND ALONG AND NEAR THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE UPPER LOW AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A WOBBLE HERE AND THERE. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK
AS PER MODELS WITH THE LOW TRENDING TO AN OPEN WAVE BY THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER ANOTHER CLOSED LOW RE/DEVELOPS OUT TO THE WEST WHICH KEEPS
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA BUT MUCH LOWER. FOR THE SHORT TERM HAVE
EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN TIME AND AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED BY
THEN DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL MOVEMENT AND PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER AND
SURFACE LOW. ONE THING IS FOR SURE AND THAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IN SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR AND ABOVE 2 INCHES TROPICAL RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE TWO TO FOUR INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 5 OR 6 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE RAIN AND
CLOUD COVERED AREAS AND WHERE THE SUN PEAKS THROUGH A 5 TO 8
DEGREE WARM UPS CAN OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...

STACKED SFC/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW CENTERED OVER NW LA JUST S OF
SHV...WITH A LARGE AREA OF SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA ALONG THE NRN
FRINGES OF THIS SYSTEM MAINLY ALONG/N OF I-20 ACROSS NE TX/N LA/SW
AR/SE OK. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR
THE NEXT 48+ HRS...WITH A WOBBLE HERE AND THERE. THUS...POOR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME...AS A MIX OF LIFR/IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL BE SLOW
TO LIFT...IF AT ALL...THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
ACROSS THE SRN SECTIONS OF DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA BY LATE
MORNING...BEFORE CIGS IMPROVE TO HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR. HOWEVER...ANY
VFR CIGS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE BRIEF...AS ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP WITH ADDED HEATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.
WILL AWAIT LATEST RADAR TRENDS BEFORE PREVAILING SHRA FOR THE
AFFECTED TERMINALS...WITH TEMPO THUNDER POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY TO THE S
AND E OF THE SFC/UPPER LOW CENTER. SHRA WILL LIKELY PERSIST NEAR/N
OF I-20 AND THE STACKED LOW OVERNIGHT...WITH A COMBO OF LIFR/IFR/LOW
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED. VSBY REDUCTIONS OF 1SM OR LESS IS POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER CONVECTION...WITH FLUCTUATIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  70  83  69  83 / 100 100  70  50  70
MLU  84  71  84  69  82 / 100 100  70  50  70
DEQ  78  68  78  66  80 / 100  90  70  70  50
TXK  79  68  79  66  81 / 100 100  70  70  50
ELD  81  70  81  68  80 / 100 100  70  70  70
TYR  82  68  83  67  83 / 100  40  50  50  30
GGG  83  69  83  68  83 / 100  70  50  50  30
LFK  85  70  85  68  85 /  40  30  30  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ059>061-070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-012>014.

OK...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

06/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
630 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2009

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-151700-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
630 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

RAINFALL WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR...WITH SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO POSSIBLY TWO INCHES PER HOUR. THESE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE RESULTING IN MORE RAPID WATER RUNOFF DUE
TO SATURATED SOILS...RESULTING IN FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RECEIVE AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR
INCHES BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLY PRODUCING ADDITIONAL
FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. PARTS OF THE FOUR STATE
REGION ALONG AND NEAR...AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR WILL BE HAVING THE GREATEST CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO FLOODING
AND FLASH FLOODING.

06

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
402 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SWARTZ                  32.57N 91.99W
09/15/2009                   OUACHITA           LA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HIGH WATER OVER SEVERAL RESIDENTIAL ROADS NEAR SWARTZ.

&&

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
454 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 AM     FLASH FLOOD      STERLINGTON             32.69N 92.06W
09/15/2009                   OUACHITA           LA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HIGH WATER ACROSS HIGHWAY 165 BETWEEN STERLINGTON HIGH
            SCHOOL AND OLD STERLINGTON. HIGH WATER ON KEYSTONE ROAD.
            HIGH WATER APPROACHING SEVERAL HOMES IN STERLINGTON...BUT
            NONE APPEAR TO BE ENTERING THE HOMES AT THIS TIME.

&&

15

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