River Flood Warning 61, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
319 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SAME STORY DIFFERENT DAY. CONVECTION RIDING THE 850 FRONT CONTINUES
TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ALONG THE RED RIVER OF TX/OK AND IN SW AR...WHERE
SOME 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AND FLOODING CONTINUES. ELSEWHERE...
CONVECTION HAS ALSO INITIATED ALONG THE SFC FRONT...IN VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THUS...SVR WATCH 286 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR SOME OF OUR
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA PARISHES. WEAK IMPULSES IN THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HEAVIEST QPF DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY.
LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
THE FRONT SHIFTS N AND FINALLY GIVES THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE REGION
SOME DRYING TIME. THAT BEING SAID...WILL EXTEND THE FF WATCH UNTIL
7 PM MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY EVENING...THE REGION WILL START TO DRY OUT AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT FRONT. FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL OK EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
ACCOMPANYING UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN OVER CENTRAL TX. GFS/EURO DIFFER
SOMEWHAT ON TIMING AND POSITION OF FRONT/TROUGH...SO BLENDED THE
TWO WHEN CONSIDERING POPS. BOTH AGREE...HOWEVER...THAT RAIN WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY MAY BE INTERESTING...
CONSIDERING THAT THE EURO ELUDES TO A POTENTIALLY SEVERE EVENT...WITH
A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THROUGH...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
TROUGH FURTHER NE. /12/

&&

.AVIATION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS EDGED NORTHWARD AND LIES BETWEEN I20 AND
I30 THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL IS SOMEWHAT STATIONARY. VFR/MVFR
CLOUD CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE IFR
TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. SCATTERED TSRA ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO TRACK ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. SO TEMPO TSRA AND VCTS WILL REMAIN COMMON AT MOST
TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LFK WILL SEE LESS ACTIVITY. /11/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  77  63  87  70 /  30  50  30  30  10
MLU  65  77  61  85  68 /  40  50  30  30  10
DEQ  60  66  55  79  65 /  70  80  40  40  10
TXK  59  69  58  82  67 /  60  80  40  40  10
ELD  59  70  58  81  67 /  50  80  40  40  20
TYR  65  78  64  88  72 /  30  50  20  20  10
GGG  64  78  63  88  71 /  20  50  30  30  10
LFK  68  87  70  90  71 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...NONE.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

12/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1130 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-111200-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-
1130 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
WITH FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT...CONSIDERING
THAT 4 TO JUST OVER 8 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PREVIOUS 24
HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER
THIS REGION MAY END UP NEAR 10 INCHES BEFORE THE RAIN FINALLY
MOVES OUT. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BRING DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA...BUT THURSDAY MAY BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND MORE RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-
165>167-111200-
CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-UNION LA-DE SOTO-
RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-
GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-
UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-
NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1130 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BRING
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT THURSDAY MAY BRING ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

12

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