River Flood Warning 56, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
326 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED THIS MORNING. WILL TRY TO
DESCRIBE IT AS BEST AS POSSIBLE. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY COLD
FRONT HAS BEEN WAVERING ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. NORTH OF THE
FRONT A COOL DENSE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE. THIS AREA NORTH OF THE
FRONT HAS BEEN WHERE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS
PROVIDED THE INSTABILITY NECESSARY TO MAINTAIN MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM 925-850 MB IN
AN ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SETUP. THESE STORMS HAVE PROVIDED FLASH
FLOOD CONDITIONS ACROSS HOWARD COUNTY AND RED RIVER COUNTIES AS
WELL AS NICKEL SIZE HAIL ACROSS MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

UNFORTUNATELY...THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY
NORTH OF I-20. AS INDIVIDUAL MID LEVEL IMPULSES SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION...STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HENCE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH 12Z MONDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...SPC HAS MUCH OF THE REGION IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH DAY TWO.

LOOKS LIKE THE LAST IMPULSE MAY BE THE STRONGEST. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE TARGET AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. FOLLOWING
THIS EVENT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS TO A SW TO NE FLOW WITH
DRIER AIR FORECAST TO INFILTRATE THE REGION. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL
CLEARING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
FRONT APPEARS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF NE
TX AND N LA ATTM. MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH AN OCCASIONAL IFR CEILING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO LOW VFR
CEILING LATER IN THE DAY EXCEPT WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OCCUR. WILL KEEP TSRA MENTION IN ACROSS TXK/ELD TERMINALS THIS
MORNING WITH CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR DEPENDENT ON
DAYTIME HEATING. WILL MENTION VCTS NEARER THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. /13/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  65  78  64  83 /  40  30  50  20  20
MLU  83  65  76  63  81 /  40  40  50  30  30
DEQ  71  60  66  59  78 /  70  70  70  30  40
TXK  76  59  69  60  80 /  50  60  70  30  30
ELD  79  59  69  61  78 /  50  50  70  40  40
TYR  82  65  78  64  85 /  40  20  40  20  10
GGG  83  64  79  63  85 /  40  20  40  20  10
LFK  87  68  85  69  87 /  50  20  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...NONE.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

05/13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
545 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-101830-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-
545 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT CONSIDERING THAT PREVIOUS RAINS HAVE
SATURATED THE GROUND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING ALONG WITH
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING. THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH
AN OVERALL DRYING TREND EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-
165>167-101830-
CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-UNION LA-DE SOTO-
RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-
GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-
UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-
NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
545 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TODAY ALONG A
STALLED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE ON MONDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. OTHERWISE...STORMS WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

05

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
713 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0713 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FULTON                  33.61N 93.81W
05/10/2009                   LITTLE RIVER       AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HWY 355 NEAR FULTON FLOODED AND CLOSED AT THIS TIME.

&&

MBERRY

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