River Flood Warning 110, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1118 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAIN AND NUMEROUS FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ONE THIRD OF THE CWA...BASICALLY IN THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA. THIS AREA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST AS
SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL THE LIFT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS OK FOR THE MOST PART BUT DID MAKE SOME
SIGNIFICANT QFP CHANGES. ALSO RAISED TODAYS HIGH TEMPS SOUTHERN
TWO THIRDS...AS THE WARM FRONT HAS ENTERED THE CWA. CONTINUING
100 PERCENT POPS NORTH BUT LOWERING TO 80 SOUTH. NO OTHER CHANGES
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS TXK/ELD WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THESE TWO LOCATIONS THROUGH 00Z.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING AREAWIDE...DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES...THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  71  79  70  74 /  80  80  60  60  60
MLU  77  71  78  67  75 /  80  80  70  50  60
DEQ  65  61  73  61  64 / 100  80  40  70  60
TXK  68  63  74  65  67 / 100  80  50  70  60
ELD  72  64  74  64  69 / 100  80  60  60  60
TYR  76  69  83  69  70 / 100  80  50  60  60
GGG  77  69  81  70  72 /  90  80  50  60  60
LFK  85  74  85  71  76 /  80  70  60  40  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-012>014.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

14/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1155 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2009

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-141700-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1155 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE REGION NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH 700 PM THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUITE NUMEROUS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT WIDESPREAD TWO TO
THREE INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
AREA CREEKS...BAYOUS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE BANK
FULL ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEVERAL RIVERS ALREADY IN FLOOD.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY WILL ONLY COMPOUND THE FLOOD
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IF WARM AIR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SURFACE CAN BE
OVERCOME. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD MONITOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN THEIR LOCAL AREAS AND ONCE HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS...RESPONDERS
MAY BE NEEDED TO HELP ASSIST WITH FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS THEIR
COUNTY AND PARISH.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
952 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TEXARKANA               33.45N 94.02W
10/13/2009                   MILLER             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MILLER COUNTY ROADS 19...43...AND 215 ARE UNDER WATER OR
            WASHED OUT

&&

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1058 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1033 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TEXARKANA               33.45N 94.02W
10/13/2009                   MILLER             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WIDESPREAD FLOODING IN THE CITY OF TEXARKANA

1033 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TEXARKANA               33.45N 94.02W
10/13/2009                   MILLER             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER IN HOMES IN LIBERTY-EYLEAU AREA

&&

12

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