River Flood Warning 101, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
332 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN...SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO DISCUSS AND JUST HOW ALL THIS
WILL EFFECT THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
THIS WEEK.

WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING DUE TO STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN. FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE LOCATED
JUST OFF THE TX/LA COASTS BUT AS THE RAIN FALLS THROUGH A LAYER OF
WARMER AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE...ITS HELPING TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE THETA-E
ADVECTION DOES DIMINISH A LITTLE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING...
WENT AHEAD AND ADVERTISED CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN TWO
THIRDS AND LIKELY POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN THIRD. THE BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY AS A WARM
FRONT AND SHOULD BE IN THE NEIGHBORING VICINITY OF A LFK/HEZ LINE
BY 00Z TNGT. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD WAFFLE AROUND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
BEFORE GETTING A BETTER PUSH NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...
PERHAPS MAKING IT NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR. NEEDLESS TO DAY...THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A NIGHTMARE DEPENDING ON JUST WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY RESIDES OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. CONCERNING TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE...WENT CLOSER TO THE NAM/WRF #S AS THE GFS HAS A HISTORY
OF WANTING TO ERODE CP AIRMASSES TOO QUICKLY. ALL SHORT TERM
PROGS INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF PAINT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA AND THIS IS AN AREA THAT DEFINITELY
DOES NOT NEED ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY BY FUTURE SHIFTS AS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED FOR AT LEAST OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY.

MUCH WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD...PERHAPS MAKING IT NORTH OF OUR FA BY
WED AFTN. STRONG WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL AID IN MOVING A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO OUR NW ZONES
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS ON THURSDAY. STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BUT THERE WILL BE CAPPING
CONCERNS IF OUR REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WED/WED NIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE FINALLY MIGRATES INTO THE SW CONUS AS A DEEP TROUGH
CARVES ITS WAY INTO THE OHIO/TENN VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY
WITH REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOLER AIR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST...HAVE UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THANKS FOR COORDN...FWD...PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FAIRLY ILL DEFINED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
10 CORRIDOR OF SOUTH LA/SE TX...SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD THRU PERIOD.
IFR CIGS AND PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TRW ONGOING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. WARM FRONT MAY REACH LFK AFTER 18Z...WITH CIGS
LIFTING TO MVFR AND MORE SCATTERED BUT DEEPER CONVECTION AFTER
FROPA. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR BY 18Z TUE TIME RANGE. CURRENTLY LFK SEE PREVAILING IFR
VISIBILITIES WITH NO PCPN... ELSEWHERE...TEMPO LOW VISIBILITIES
MAINLY PCPN INDUCED./VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  61  72  69  83 /  90  70  90  80  60
MLU  69  62  74  68  78 /  90  70  90  80  80
DEQ  62  56  64  59  79 /  90  70  90  80  60
TXK  59  55  65  61  80 /  90  70  90  80  60
ELD  62  57  67  64  77 /  90  70  90  80  80
TYR  64  60  70  69  86 /  70  70  90  80  50
GGG  66  60  72  69  85 /  70  70  90  80  50
LFK  73  67  81  73  89 /  90  60  90  60  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

13/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
413 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2009

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-121800-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-
MORRIS-CASS-
413 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD NOT EXCEED ONE TO ONE AND ONE HALF
INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT PULLS UP NEARLY
STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE REGION...TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL TWO
TO FOUR INCHES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30
CORRIDOR. THE GROUND REMAINS VERY SATURATED ACROSS THE REGION AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED
THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY...
FIRST RESPONDERS MAY BE NEEDED TO HELP ASSIST WITH FLOODING CONCERNS
ACROSS THEIR COUNTY.

LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-
121800-
CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-UNION LA-DE SOTO-
RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-
GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-
CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
SABINE TX-
413 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. SOME OF THESE COULD CONTAIN PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO
LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS GULF COAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. STORMS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE IN NATURE BUT TIMING
DIFFERENCES AND WARM AIR ALOFT MAY PRECLUDE STRONG THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCE MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

13

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