Small Craft Advisory 5, NWS San Diego, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 AM PDT SUN MAR 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA TODAY. DRY...COOL AND BREEZY ON MONDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING WARM...DRY WEATHER WITH LOCAL GUSTY CANYON WINDS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AN ENERGETIC BUT MOISTURE-STARVED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE UNDER 1/4 INCH. SNOW LEVEL 5000 FEET...BUT ONLY 1 TO
3 INCHES NOW EXPECTED. VERY STRONG WEST WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH WITH
LOCAL GUSTS TO 75 MPH AT TIMES ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND
THE DESERT AREAS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTS AND
VALLEYS. THE WINDS ARE BEING POWERED BY A 125 MPH JET STREAM COMING
IN WITH THE TROUGH. WE WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET
MAX WITH SINKING AIR...WHICH NOT ONLY WILL BRING WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...BUT WILL DECREASE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AS THE TROF MOVES EAST...CAUSING
12 MB ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY. COOL...DRY NW FLOW MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
OFFSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GUSTY N-NE
WINDS TO 40 MPH BELOW PASSES ARE LIKELY ON TUESDAY... DECREASING
WEDNESDAY. A 540 INSIDER UPPER LOW WILL CARVE ACROSS ARIZONA...
BRINGING COOLER NW FLOW ON THU...AND ANOTHER SHOT OF SANTA ANA WINDS
ON FRIDAY. FAIR AND WARM NEXT WEEKEND AS A 582 UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...220900Z...
MARINE LAYER CLOUD BASES TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500
FT MSL...LAYERED TO FL070 WITH SOME MTN/FOOTHILL
OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL SIDE. SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...PRIMARILY THROUGH 20Z...BUT BELOW THE
CLOUDS...VIS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY 5 MILES OR ABOVE. A GRADUAL TREND
FROM BKN/OVC TO SCT/BKN WILL OCCUR AROUND 19-21Z...WITH
MTNS/FOOTHILLS REMAINING CLOUDY THE LONGEST. FOR TONIGHT...SCT/BKN
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FROM THE MTNS W TO NEAR THE COAST.

IN THE MTNS/DESERTS...AREAS OF 35-45 KT WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY AFTER 19Z. THE USUAL UP/DOWN DRAFTS
AND MOUNTAIN WAVES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE E/NE MTN SLOPES AND DESERTS
BETWEEN 19Z AND 06Z. COASTAL WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...GENERALLY 15 G
25 KT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT KSAN WILL HAVE GUSTS
REMAINING BELOW THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD OF 30 KT.

&&

.MARINE...220900Z...
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 20-30 KNOT RANGE WITH LOCAL GUSTS OVER 35
KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS. THE SCA WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUN
TO 3 AM MON...WITH PEAK WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM SUN.

THE MIX OF WIND WAVES AND SHORT PERIOD SWELL WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY
CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. COMBINED SEAS COULD REACH 9 FEET
IN THE OUTER WATERS. THE SWELL DIRECTION WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY
ENOUGH AND THE PERIOD SHORT ENOUGH THAT RELATIVELY LITTLE OF IT WILL
REACH THE BEACHES. LOCAL SETS WILL BE 6 FEET...MAINLY SOUTH OF LA
JOLLA SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY FOR
     APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
     COACHELLA VALLEY-
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY FOR
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
     SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS- THE INLAND EMPIRE-
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
     SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND
     OUT 30 NM-
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING
     30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND-

&&

PUBLIC...MACKECHNIE
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO

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