Frost Advisory 1, NWS San Diego, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
230 PM PST MON FEB 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM MOVING THROUGH TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH LOCAL STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT. DRY AND COOL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER STORM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A
STRONGER STORM SHOULD CAUSE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.

.SHORT TERM (REMAINDER OF TODAY-THURSDAY)...A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
WERE MOVING THROUGH TODAY. THE FIRST BROUGHT SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...HEAVY AT TIMES. THE SECOND COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON BRINING SHOWERS AND LOCAL STRONG GUSTY WINDS. EARLY
AFTERNOON ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWED STRONG WLY WINDS ALOFT. ONSHORE
GRADIENTS WITH ABOUT 5 MB SAN-IPL AND 12 MB SAN-TPH.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL LINGER
INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY W OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND
ISLAND EFFECTS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TO ABOUT 3000 FT N TO
3500 FT S. COLD AIR TRAPPED BEHIND THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS
COULD CAUSE A FEW SNOW FLURRIES IN THE HIGH DESERTS. MOST ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE LESS THAN THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCAL NEW
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO OR THREE INCHES THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE LOCAL LARGER AMOUNTS IN BRIEF HEAVY
SHOWERS. THE FRONT COMBINED WITH WINDS ALOFT AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS
WILL CAUSE GUSTY WINDS IN MOST AREAS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...DESERTS...COASTAL WATERS AND IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE WILL
BE WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO WIND ADVISORY STRENGTH...ABOUT 35 MPH AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS W OF THE MOUNTAINS AND 45 TO 55 MPH IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE
WINDS ALOFT AND GRADIENTS WEAKEN. DRY WITH LESS CLOUDINESS TUESDAY
AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY UNDER A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE. A WEAK TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CONTINUED COOL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...DESPITE A LITTLE WARMING...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY INTO
THE LOWER 60S W OF THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. COOLER AGAIN THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK WITH DRY
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AND A LITTLE WARMING FRIDAY UNDER A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE. ANOTHER UPPER LOW SHOULD BRING MORE RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW
AND GUSTY WINDS THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT STRENGTH AND
TIMING REMAIN UNCERTAIN. SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT WILL
GENERALLY BE ON THE DECREASE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
092022Z...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD CIGS BETWEEN FL020 AND FL060 WITH TOPS T0
FL120...AND 3-5SM VIS IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS...WILL GENERALLY BE
IMPROVING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 23Z. FARTHER INLAND...MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW AND PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE COASTAL SLOPES
OBSCURED THROUGH THE NIGHT. STRONG WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
06Z AND MAY GUST TO 30KT AT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS.

FARTHER INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND INTO THE DESERTS...GUSTS
TO AROUND 50 KT ARE EXPECTED. THE STRONG WEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE
MOUNTAIN WAVE AND ROTOR ACTIVITY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS
INTO THE DESERTS WITH STRONG UP AND DOWN DRAFTS AND SOME LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AT TIMES. IT IS PROBABLE THAT KPSP WILL BE AFFECTED...
RESULTING IN VARIABLE TO GUSTY EAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND A SHARP
WIND SHEAR LAYER SOMEWHERE BELOW 10K FT. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
KPSP TAF. SHOWERS...CLOUDS AND WIND WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NW SWELL WILL INCREASE THROUGH TODAY TO AROUND 5-8 FEET. STRONG
WEST WINDS AND ASSOCIATED INCREASING WIND WAVES WILL OCCUR TODAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TUE MORNING.

&&

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 7 PM...SEE LAXWSWSGX.

WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS...INLAND VALLEYS...SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS AND FOR THE DESERTS UNTIL 7 PM...SEE LAXNPWSGX.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS UNTIL 10 AM
TUESDAY...SEE LAXMWWSGX AND LAXCWFSGX.

&&

PUBLIC...ATKIN
AVIATION/MARINE...JD

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