Wind Advisory 11, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WWUS73 KSGF 262037
NPWSGF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
337 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055-066>068-077>079-088>090-093-094-101-102-
262145-
/O.CAN.KSGF.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-090427T0000Z/
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-VERNON-ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-BARTON-
CEDAR-POLK-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-MCDONALD-BARRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...NEVADA...
APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...HERMITAGE...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...
STOCKTON...BOLIVAR...JOPLIN...CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...
SPRINGFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE
337 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS CANCELLED THE
WIND ADVISORY. 

SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...BUT WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA.

$$

SCHAUMANN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
314 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGES COVER A WIDE VARIETY OF CONCERNS...FROM
WINDS...TO TEMPERATURES TO PRECIP ONSET TODAY AND SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL THROUGH MONDAY.

CURRENTLY...WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PANHANDLE AREA...NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST
IOWA THIS MORNING. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION ONGOING JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR SOUTHEAST KANSAS COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. BULK OF THE CONVECTION MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE SGF
CWA. OUR KANSAS COUNTIES MAY GET SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT OF THIS
COMPLEX...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...LOOKS LIKE THE REST OF THE CWA
WILL STAY DRY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SEEN IN THIS
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FIRST ONE JUST NOW MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA...WHICH SHOULD HELP PULL THE FRONT NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. A SECOND VORT LOBE MOVING THROUGH
UTAH...WHILE A THIRD JUST NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN NEVADA.

FOR TODAY...FOR THE MOST PART THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY.
PRECIPITATION GETS PULLED NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FIRST
UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA TODAY.
GRADIENT TO REMAIN TIGHT OVER THE WESTERN CWA AS SURFACE LOW OVER
PANHANDLE AREA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. BY 00Z THIS
AFTERNOON...THE UNO TO ICT SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES TO AROUND
12MBS...SO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE. SOME CONCERNS WITH A
POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
WITH THIS TIGHTENING GRADIENT. BIGGEST FACTOR AGAINST A WIND
ADVISORY IS THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME FAIRLY DENSE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE DAY. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO FORECAST 44KTS AT 836MBS
AT SGF AND 48KTS AT JLN THIS AFTERNOON AT 21Z. SATELLITE SHOWING
SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING...SO DO THINK WE WILL SEE WINDS PICK UP A LITTLE OVER
GUIDANCE TODAY. DECIDED TO GO ON THE SAFE SIDE AND ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 00Z THIS AFTERNOON.

BY THIS EVENING...SECONDARY UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN
KANSAS AND KICKS SURFACE LOW EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA. OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME PRECIP
BEGINNING NEAR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY SUNRISE MONDAY. NAM SHOWING LOW LEVEL
JET SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD INTO
THE AREA IN EARNEST AFTER 12Z MONDAY. WRF FORECASTING CAPES NEAR
100 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AFTER
12Z...SO WILL HIGHLIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THIS
MORNINGS HWO FOR MONDAY MORNING AS WELL. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS HEAVIEST RAIN
APPEARS TO OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
ALSO...QPF AMOUNTS KEEP DECREASING WITH EACH MODEL RUN. SO FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE ESF AND ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT ANOTHER MODEL RUN
TO ASCERTAIN BETTER AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS THAT SHOULD BE INCLUDED
IN THE WATCH. HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE ONGOING MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS GFS PAINTING HEAVIEST RAINFALL GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60. BY TUESDAY MORNING...FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON PUSHING THE
FRONT SOUTH...THOUGH ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER.

FRONT HANGS OUT OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. ECMWF SHOWING ANOTHER WAVE MOVING UP INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI
THURSDAY FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE RAIN EVENT. GFS SHOWING A SIMILAR
SOLUTION...ONLY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. WILL WORRY ABOUT THE LATER
PART OF THE FORECAST AFTER A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS.

CLAYCOMB

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 0600Z KSGF/KJLN TAFS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS
FROM FAR NORTHWEST MO THROUGH EASTERN KS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS MAY SKIRT THE KJLN AREA
TONIGHT...BUT MOST IF NOT ALL THE RAIN/TSTMS WILL REMAIN WEST OF
THE KJLN AREA...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...BUT CANT RULE
SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS AFFECTING WESTERN MO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES SUPPORT THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IN BOTH TAFS...AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH 35KT GUSTS POSSIBLE.

DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MOZ055-066>068-077>079-088>090-093-094-101-102.

KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1116 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-270430-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1116 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST
OF A CASSVILLE TO SPRINGFIELD TO WARSAW LINE OVERNIGHT....WITH THE
OVERALL BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE OUTLOOK AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO LOCATIONS NEAR THE MISSOURI
AND KANSAS STATE LINE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...ONLY A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE OUTLOOK
AREA
ON MONDAY. MODEST HEATING WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. IN ADDITION...THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO A RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND AREA LOW WATER CROSSINGS.
MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA