Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
830 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A COMMA SHAPED LINE FROM EAST CENTRAL
KS INTO SOUTHWEST MO. STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN
MO WITH THE LINE WITH FROM BOLIVAR SOUTH TO THE AR LINE. 50 TO 60
MPH WINDS JUST THROUGH THE AIRPORT AREA AT KSGF. THREAT HAS
EVOLVED INTO MAINLY A WIND THREAT WITH BRIEF SPIN UPS ALONG THE
LINE WITH WIND BACKED AHEAD OF THE LINE/HIGH HELICITY. CONVECTION IS LOW
TOPPED AND IS STRENGTHENING IN RESPONSE TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. WATCH CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN MO OZARKS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW SITUATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...NEAR ENID. WARM FRONT STILL TO OUR SOUTH...LYING ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS NEAR THE STATE LINE. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S RESIDE. WHILE NORTH OF
THE FRONT OVER THE OZARKS...DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW FROM PNC...TO JUST
WEST OF OKC...BACK INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. BETWEEN THE TWO FRONT...A
GULF SURGE IN DEW POINTS FROM MID 60S IN NORTHERN TEXAS...TO LOW
60S IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...TO LOW 50S IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS EXISTS.
PROFILER WINDS AT 850 AND 925MBS HAVE REALLY BEGUN TO INCREASE
OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST AT
30-40KTS. SHOULD START TO SEE THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS ADVECT INTO
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT FINALLY
MAKES ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LASTLY...BACK EDGE OF UPPER
CLOUDINESS JUST NOW MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE WESTERN MISSOURI
STATE LINE. BEHIND THESE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO
THE LOW 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES INCREASING ACROSS
WESTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CLEARING LINE MOVES
EAST. ALL THESE FACTORS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS SEVERE WEATHER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE MOST FAVORABLE SPOT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONTINUES TO BE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI...JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT
CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. WRF CAPES ALONG THE
MISSOURI/ARKANSAS LINE FORECAST NEAR 800 TO 900 J/KG. BY LATE THIS
EVENING...SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO BE CENTERED NEAR
CASSVILLE...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO VICHY. LOOKS
LIKE PREDOMINANT RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WITH WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE IN NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.
SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW FOR OUR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES AT THAT TIME.

BY FRIDAY MORNING...SURFACE LOW FORECAST NEAR THE BOOT HEEL AREA
AND SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE OVER FOR OUR CWA. MAY STILL SEE SOME
LIGHT RAIN IN THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FRIDAY MORNING. ALL RAIN
LOOKS TO COME TO AN END BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES
SOUTH INTO IOWA.

NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AS
ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...THEN INTO
CENTRAL ARKANSAS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GOOD GULF MOISTURE RETURN WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND MODELS FORECASTING A FAIRLY DECENT SOAKING RAIN
EVENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF
COULD FALL ACROSS THE CWA WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS THE AREA. BUT SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...INTO THE GULF STATES.

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE SPRINGFIELD TERMINAL BY 03Z.
SHOWERS WILL THEN REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. MVFR CIELINGS WILL PREVAIL WITH LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN. IFR CIELINGS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
746 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-110100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
746 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS WITH SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
  PRODUCING:

  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS.
  WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
  ISOLATED TORNADOES.
  AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
  MISSOURI MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60 THROUGH
  MIDNIGHT...BUT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
  AREA.

  DISCUSSION:

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
  EVENING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM NORTH CENTRAL
  OKLAHOMA EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

  THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
  WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
  HIGHWAY 60. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE
  POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG WIND SHEAR...ISOLATED
  TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TO THE NORTH...HAIL WILL BE THE
  PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING FRIDAY MORNING AS THE STORM
  SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THIS
  TIME...STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE FRIDAY MORNING.

  ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND
  MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN
 MISSOURI ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SPRINGFIELD TO EMINENCE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
917 PM CDT THU APR 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0852 PM     HAIL             2 W CONWAY              37.50N 92.86W
04/09/2009  E1.00 INCH       DALLAS             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
925 PM CDT THU APR 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 N HARTVILLE           37.34N 92.51W
04/09/2009  E70 MPH          WRIGHT             MO   PUBLIC

&&

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
928 PM CDT THU APR 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0919 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MANSFIELD               37.11N 92.58W
04/09/2009                   WRIGHT             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES IN MANSFIELD AND MACOMB

&&

GCLAYCOMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
929 PM CDT THU APR 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0919 PM     TSTM WND GST     MANSFIELD               37.11N 92.58W
04/09/2009  E64 MPH          WRIGHT             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

GCLAYCOMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
942 PM CDT THU APR 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 PM     HAIL             STOUTLAND               37.81N 92.51W
04/09/2009  E2.75 INCH       LACLEDE            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

GCLAYCOMB

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