Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 241028
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
528 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

KSC021-037-241115-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-090324T1115Z/
CRAWFORD KS-CHEROKEE KS-
528 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 AM CDT
FOR CHEROKEE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES...

AT 526 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MCCUNE TO SHERWIN TO
FAULKNER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70
MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CARONA BY 535 AM CDT.
  GIRARD...SCAMMON...COLUMBUS AND CHEROKEE BY 540 AM CDT.
  WEIR BY 545 AM CDT.
  ARMA...PITTSBURG...FRONTENAC AND 6 MILES SOUTH OF ENGLEVALE BY 550
  AM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF BEULAH...NEUTRAL...STIPPVILLE...SKIDMORE...ROSELAND...
RINGO...LONE OAK...CHICOPEE...POLK AND FRANKLIN ARE IN THE PATH OF
THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE ARE DANGEROUS STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...IF YOU ARE IN THEIR PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3768 9463 3710 9462 3699 9508 3748 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 1028Z 237DEG 38KT 3738 9495 3723 9496
          3710 9500

$$

FOSTER

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 241040
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
540 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

KSC021-037-241115-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-090324T1115Z/
CRAWFORD KS-CHEROKEE KS-
540 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 AM CDT
FOR CHEROKEE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES...

AT 539 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM RINGO TO WEIR TO
COLUMBUS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70
MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  ARMA...ENGLEVALE...PITTSBURG AND FRONTENAC BY 545 AM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF CROWEBURG...CRESTLINE...YALE AND LAWTON ARE IN THE PATH
OF THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE ARE DANGEROUS STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...IF YOU ARE IN THEIR PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3768 9463 3710 9462 3699 9508 3748 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 1040Z 239DEG 44KT 3751 9472 3733 9478
          3718 9484

$$

FOSTER

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 241103
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
603 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

KSC021-037-241113-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-090324T1115Z/
CRAWFORD KS-CHEROKEE KS-
603 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CHEROKEE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES
IS CANCELLED...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING ARE EXITING THE WARNED
AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT CHEROKEE COUNTY THROUGH 
8 AM. 

LAT...LON 3768 9463 3710 9462 3699 9508 3748 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 1103Z 239DEG 44KT 3765 9442 3747 9448
          3732 9454

$$

FOSTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
349 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

.DISCUSSION...

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH THREE DISTINCT STORM SYSTEMS
IMPACTING THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN IS WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION. A
WEAKER STORM SYSTEM IS THEN SLATED FOR MIDWEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER
STRONG SYSTEM TAKES AIM ON THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK.

TODAY...A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY PULL NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CORN BELT. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY OVERTAKING A DRY LINE IN KANSAS. LATEST MESO
ANALYSIS AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES 300 TO 500 J/KG
OF MLCAPE WITH LITTLE CINH WILL WORK INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR
WESTERN MISSOURI DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. THERE IS A
WINDOW...ALBEIT SHRINKING...WHERE SUPERCELLS MAY REMAIN THE
DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE THROUGH 12Z OR SO. ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT WORK INTO THE WESTERN
COUNTIES.

AROUND SUNRISE...SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL TEND TO ACCELERATE THE COLD FRONT EASTWARD. CLOUD
LAYER SHEAR VECTORS BY THIS TIME WILL BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE FRONT...SO EXPECT DISCRETE STORMS TO QUICKLY LINE OUT. THIS
LINE WILL THEN MARCH EAST ACROSS THE OZARKS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST TO CARRY AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR CLOUD BREAKS OUT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY GETTING A
WARM START...AND ANY SUNSHINE WOULD JUST INCREASE INSTABILITY AND
THE ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT.

WILL ALSO BE EXTENDING THE WIND ADVISORY BACK EAST ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE PLATEAU INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NOT ALL THAT MUCH
DECOUPLING HAS OCCURRED OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A FAIRLY STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL VEER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. COULD EASILY SEE
A FEW GUSTS TO 45 MPH WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION.
THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE TRIMMED FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LINE
OF STORMS ROLLS THROUGH.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ...A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM WILL QUICKLY EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE REGION. THINK THIS WAVE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH ALONG
WITH SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS.
BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. ANY RAINFALL
WOULD BE RATHER LIGHT.

LATE THIS WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER STRONG
STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION. LONG WAVE CHARTS FAVOR STRONG
DIGGING OF ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. PREFER A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK TO THIS ENERGY AS
MODELS MAY BE TOO QUICK TO EJECT IT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. THERE LOOKS TO BE BETTER INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH WHERE THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM
FRONT SET UP. DO THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A COLD TAP FOR SOME
WET SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. MOST LIKELY AREA AT THIS
TIME LOOKS TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS.

THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE IN THE
LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH DIGGING ENERGY CONTINUING TO BE FAVORED OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO INDICATE
ANOTHER DECENT SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION SOMETIME EARLY NEXT
WORK WEEK. PLENTY OF TIME TO HONE IN ON THIS ONE.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 0600 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WIT ANY CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE MORNING/MIDDAY
PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ055-066>068-
     077>079-088>091-093>095.

KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
323 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-250830-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
323 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS TODAY. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES...AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN
MISSOURI DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD...EVENTUALLY TRANSLATING ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

INSTABILITY LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED...HOWEVER...DUE TO A
HIGHLY SHEARED ATMOSPHERE...SOME STORMS WILL BECOME
ORGANIZED...CREATING AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO
OCCUR.

IN ADDITION TO TODAYS THUNDERSTORMS...WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED 40
MPH AT TIMES TODAY...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM NEOSHO AND SALEM. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...INTERACTING WITH GULF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER