Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
839 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2009

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TREND OFF TO THE
WEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS SLIGHTLY BETTER DYNAMICS AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVE ON TO THE PLAINS. SEVERAL OF THESE
STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SGF CWA. THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA MAY SEE
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE 10 PM. HOWEVER...THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS COUNTIES JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
FOLLOWING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

MOST RECENT ANALYSIS INDICATES A CONTINUED MOISTURE FEED NORTH
INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. AS
FORCING MOVES INTO THIS RELATIVELY JUICY AIR...ANTICIPATE THAT
STORMS WILL MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS. THE MAIN QUESTION IN OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT LIES IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE TO STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE OZARKS. SHEAR
PARAMETERS...INCLUDING LOW LEVEL SHEAR...IS PLENTIFUL AND WILL
SUPPORT ROTATION WITH SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL
HELICITIES AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.THE FORECAST
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACK REMAINS WEST OF THE CWA WITH THE BEST
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT REMAINING PRIMARILY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. THESE AREAS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER...WHILE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF AN ANDERSON TO
OSCEOLA LINE HAVE THE GREATEST RISK OF SEEING A TORNADO.

IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOSTON MOUNTAINS APPEARS THAT
IT WILL SPILL AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE WEST
PLAINS REGION. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL AND
PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS.

BARJENBRUCH

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...TSTORMS HAVE INITIATED OVER KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE JLN...AND EVENTUALLY
SGF...AREAS LATER THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE AND MAY NOT NECESSARILY IMPACT EACH AERODROME. WITH TIMING
ALSO IN QUESTION...HAVE MENTIONED CB BUT LEFT OUT TS WORDING AT
THIS TIME. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY IF STORMS MOVE OVER
THE TAF SITE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH APPROXIMATELY SUNRISE WITH A STRONG JET JUST OFF
THE SFC. IN ABSENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOUTH WINDS
PREVAILING.

BARJENBRUCH

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
855 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-110200-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
855 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 ISOLATED TORNADOES.
 HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS.
 DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH.
 HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL
 WILL IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CASSVILLE TO
 BOLIVAR TO WARSAW MISSOURI AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT. EAST OF THIS
 LINE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
 POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

 THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS
 EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AS THE EVENING
 PROGRESSES...PUSHING INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
 MISSOURI AFTER 10 PM.

 THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WEST OF A CASSVILLE
 TO BOLIVAR TO WARSAW LINE. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND
 SHEAR AND MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...TORNADOES...LARGE
 HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

 DECREASED INSTABILITY WILL CAUSE THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
 WEAKEN A BIT...AND THE TORNADO THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS STORMS
 PUSH EAST OF THIS LINE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF
 PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
 OZARKS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

 WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
 OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH
 THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
 HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
740 PM CDT MON MAR 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE EDGAR SPRINGS      37.71N 91.85W
03/08/2009                   PHELPS             MO   NWS STORM SURVEY

            A METAL ROOF TORN OFF OF A BUSINESS IN EDGAR SPRINGS.
            SCATTERED TREES DOWN...AND A WINDOW BLOWN OUT OF A
            RESIDENCE. WIND SPEEDS ESTIMATED AT 80 MPH.

&&

BARJENBRUCH