Severe Thunderstorm Warning 362, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
855 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

FORECAST BEING UPDATED FOR TORNADO WATCH.

WINDS HAVE RECOVERED A BIT FROM EARLIER CONVECTION AND ARE BACKED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY
RAMBUNCTIOUS...BUT CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED THE LINE
SEGMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WIND AND
HAIL REMAIN THE PRIMARY RISK...THOUGH A ISOLATED EMBEDDED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

GAGAN

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING ARE THE FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THEN A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

A COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SETUP IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE
OZARKS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND TRACK ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS. THIS CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET. EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AIDED BY
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE FRONT IN
THE PLAINS AND MOVE INTO THE OZARKS LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
KICK SOUTHEAST WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
OZARKS...COOLING ALOFT WILL STEEPEN MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
0-6KM SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR 50 KNOTS. WHILE ONGOING CONVECTION
COMPLICATES SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...ISOLATED EMBEDDED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH A THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE A MESOSCALE FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST
FURTHER FINE TUNED AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
MISSOURI OZARKS. HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORMS BRING THE CONCERN OF FLASH FLOODING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN NEAR AN INCH AND HALF ACROSS THE REGION.
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL MOISTEN THE GROUND...AND STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS ALONG WITH STRONG SURFACE FRONT WILL DEVELOP
SUFFICIENT UPDRAFTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AS 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES TO NEAR 50 KNOTS AND INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ENDING. STRONG ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE ALONG THE 310K SURFACE WILL
BRING CLEARING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOG POTENTIAL FRIDAY MORNING WITH CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST GROUND.

ANGLE

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUITE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS TH CENTRAL
U.S. IT APPEARS THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL NOT RETURN UNTIL LATE
NEXT WEEK.

FOSTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...BKN BAND OF SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO LIFT
NE AWAY FROM JLN/SGF/BBG...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
ALREADY UNDERWAY TO THE WEST ACROSS N OK AND PORTIONS OF SE KS.
COMPLEX FORECAST AS ANY VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO
15 HOURS WILL BE TIED TO SHRA/TSRA. VFR IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER AS DOWNPOURS FROM SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA OCCASIONAL MVFR WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF IFR IS POSSIBLE. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM NW TO SE STARTING DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. VFR IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>094.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
848 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-210200-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
848 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
NEBRASKA...KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. THIS FIRST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL ENTER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AFTER 900 PM AND FAR
WESTERN MISSOURI AFTER 1000 PM. MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL. IN
ADDITION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM GIRARD KANSAS TO SPRINGFIELD AND HARTVILLE IN
MISSOURI. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRACK OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI THURSDAY
MORNING. WHILE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING BY
THIS TIME...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE
STORMS CAN REMAIN ORGANIZED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT AFTER 9 PM ACROSS
EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY
BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
338 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 SW WEST PLAINS        36.68N 91.92W
08/19/2009  M1.25 INCH       HOWELL             MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            RAINFALL FELL IN A HALF HOUR. ALSO STREET FLOODING BEING
            REPORTED IN WEST PLAINS BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.

&&

GCLAYCOM