Severe Thunderstorm Warning 360, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
325 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

.DISCUSSION...

THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING ARE THE FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THEN A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

A COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SETUP IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE
OZARKS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND TRACK ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS. THIS CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET. EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AIDED BY
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE FRONT IN
THE PLAINS AND MOVE INTO THE OZARKS LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
KICK SOUTHEAST WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
OZARKS...COOLING ALOFT WILL STEEPEN MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
0-6KM SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR 50 KNOTS. WHILE ONGOING CONVECTION
COMPLICATES SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...ISOLATED EMBEDDED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH A THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE A MESOSCALE FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST
FURTHER FINE TUNED AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
MISSOURI OZARKS. HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORMS BRING THE CONCERN OF FLASH FLOODING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN NEAR AN INCH AND HALF ACROSS THE REGION.
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL MOISTEN THE GROUND...AND STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS ALONG WITH STRONG SURFACE FRONT WILL DEVELOP
SUFFICIENT UPDRAFTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AS 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES TO NEAR 50 KNOTS AND INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ENDING. STRONG ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE ALONG THE 310K SURFACE WILL
BRING CLEARING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOG POTENTIAL FRIDAY MORNING WITH CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST GROUND.

ANGLE

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUITE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS TH CENTRAL
U.S. IT APPEARS THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL NOT RETURN UNTIL LATE
NEXT WEEK.

FOSTER

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE JOPLIN TERMINAL VICINITY.
OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
WILL ALSO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THIS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY IMPROVING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>094.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1225 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-201730-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1225 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG...MAINLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA AFTER 10 PM AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW SEVERE STORMS TO BE
POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXISTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN STORM HAZARDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
ENHANCED IF THE STORMS ORGANIZE INTO A LINE. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OCCURRING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING BY THIS TIME...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THE STORMS CAN REMAIN ORGANIZED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AFTER 10 PM.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

ANGLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
338 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 SW WEST PLAINS        36.68N 91.92W
08/19/2009  M1.25 INCH       HOWELL             MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            RAINFALL FELL IN A HALF HOUR. ALSO STREET FLOODING BEING
            REPORTED IN WEST PLAINS BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.

&&

GCLAYCOM