Severe Thunderstorm Warning 353, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
310 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY CONTINUES. MULTIPLE MCSS HAVE
BLOSSOMED OVER THE MIDWEST...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH IS JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAVE BEEN
ANCHORED MODEST LOW LEVEL WINDS INTERSECTING A SOUTHWARD MOVING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. PROPAGATION HAS BEEN ACCELERATING TO THE SOUTH
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH THE MOST HEALTHY UPDRAFTS NOW
FORMING NEAR THE MO/ARK STATE LINE. WHILE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE BETTER RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES
TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL.

AN INTENSE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO WEST
CENTRAL MO...REPRESENTING THE GREATER RISK OF SEVERE STORMS BY
FAR. A NARROW TONGUE OF INSTABILITY HAS NOSED NORTHWARD ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS MCS...MAINLY IN AREA ALONG THE MO/KS STATE LINE ON
WESTWARD. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY RISK...ALONG WITH
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. GUSTY WIND WILL LIKELY LINGER BEHIND
THE LINE WITH POSSIBLE WAKE LOW DEVELOPMENT. HAIL HAS BEEN HARD
TO COME BY AND WILL BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE. THIS
LINE OF STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA WORKED OVER BY EARLIER
CONVECTION...THUS THE LIFE CYCLE OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY ON THE
DOWNTURN THE FURTHER EAST IT MOVES. THE FAR NW CWA WILL CERTAINLY
BE ACTIVE THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE POSITIONING AND LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES
TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET ONCE AGAIN INTENSIFIES. INDICATIONS
ARE THAT ANOTHER COMPLEX OF TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS KANSAS AND
MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. STORM SEVERITY IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION GIVEN HOW MUCH THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE WORKED
OVER THIS AFTERNOON. THE RISK IS LOW END AT THIS POINT AND
CONFINED TO WIND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT HAIL. CONCERN IS THERE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL RECEIVED THUS FAR
TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN PLENTY MOIST WITH GOOD MOIST LOW
LEVEL INFLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...THIS ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...LIKELY BEING OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. SOME
REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR SUCH DEVELOPMENT TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
THOUGH SOMETHING TO KEEP IN THE BACK OF THE MIND IN CASE THIS
SYSTEM SLOWS.

TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS ON TAP. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR
WILL ENTER FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE KNOCKED BACK A BIT
TO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A SLOW
MODERATION EACH DAY. UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A HOLD
ON THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BEGIN TO NUDGE TOWARDS THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
HAVE INTRODUCED CLIMO POPS FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS.
OTHERWISE...AT OR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR MID AUGUST ARE EXPECTED.

GAGAN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z SGF/JLN/BBG TAFS...WILL KEEP AT LEAST VICINITY STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE OVERRIDES AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM NEOSHO TO BRANSON. COULD SEE INTERMITTENT
MVFR AND UPPER END IFR WITH THE STRONGER STORM CELLS THAT MOVE
OVER THE AIRPORTS...ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR KSGF DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

TERRY

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1252 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-111800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1252 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORM DOWNBURST WINDS TO 60 MPH
  QUARTER SIZED HAIL
  TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
  OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
  OF STORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
  TONIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

 A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI WILL
 SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
 HAVE DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
 MISSOURI OZARKS. STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA...WITH
 WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ACROSS EXTREME
 SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI...ADDITIONAL
 THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THESE
 STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS
 TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
 ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

 IN ADDITION...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
 KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LINE
 OF STORMS WILL AFFECT EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AFTER 200 PM AND
 PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE
 FROM LAMAR TO OSCEOLA...AFTER 300 PM. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60
 MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
 EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

 ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
 TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG
 STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH THERE
 WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AS HEAVY RAINFALL
 IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
  MORNING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD TUESDAY
  MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
  MIDDAY TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST AS
  WELL AS FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH THIS
  AFTERNOON.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1246 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     HEAVY RAIN       FLEMINGTON              37.80N 93.50W
08/10/2009  M2.60 INCH       POLK               MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            RAINFALL SO FAR TODAY.

&&

MTERRY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
142 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

MOZ097-098-106-101915-
SHANNON MO-HOWELL MO-OREGON MO-
142 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EAST CENTRAL HOWELL...NORTHWESTERN
OREGON AND SOUTHWESTERN SHANNON COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 141 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PEACE VALLEY...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF MOUNTAIN
VIEW...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE PEACE VALLEY...THOMASVILLE AND WHITE
CHURCH.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

GAEDE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
204 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

MOZ098-101930-
SHANNON MO-
204 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SOUTHEASTERN SHANNON COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM CDT...

AT 201 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WINONA...OR 20 MILES EAST OF MOUNTAIN
VIEW...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE WINONA.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

GAEDE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
221 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

MOZ102-101945-
BARRY MO-
221 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CENTRAL BARRY COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM
CDT...

AT 221 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WASHBURN...OR 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CASSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BUTTERFIELD...CASSVILLE...EAGLE ROCK...
EXETER...WASHBURN AND WAYNE.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT INCLUDE ROARING
RIVER STATE PARK AND TABLE ROCK LAKE.

GAEDE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
308 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

MOZ102-102045-
BARRY MO-
308 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SOUTHERN BARRY COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM
CDT...

AT 307 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF EAGLE ROCK...OR 6 MILES
SOUTH OF CASSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE CASSVILLE...EAGLE ROCK...SHELL KNOB AND
WAYNE.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT INCLUDE ROARING
RIVER STATE PARK AND TABLE ROCK LAKE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

GAEDE

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