Severe Thunderstorm Warning 344, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
643 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT THAT
EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS THROUGH EARLY WILL OCCUR MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
HIGHWAY 60 AS A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH. WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MEASURED A WIND
GUSTS OF 45 MPH AT 535 PM.

FOSTER

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DECENT SIGNAL
WITH THE WRF MODEL THAT SUGGESTS CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NE
OKLAHOMA AND SE KANSAS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS OCCURS IN
RESPONSE TO ENHANCED PRESSURE ADVECTION LIFT WITHIN AN AREA WHERE
THE LOW LEVEL JET INTERSECTS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. FOR THIS REASON I
HAVE ELECTED TO LEAN OUR FORECAST TOWARD THE WRF SOLUTION WITH
POPS THE HIGHEST OVER SW MO / SE KS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN OKLAHOMA WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.  ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PRIOR
TO EXITING THE REGION MID THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NATIONS MID
SECTION...ALLOWING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO SPREAD IN.   FAIR
WEATHER CONDUCIVE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL RESULT BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.  LOOK FOR LOW HUMIDITY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING INTO
THE MID 80S.  RETURN FLOW COMMENCES DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...MEANWHILE A UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH BY SUNDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY CREATE ANOTHER EPISODE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO NEXT MONDAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG SIGNAL WITHIN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THAT CONFINES THE SUMMERTIME HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE OZARKS...CAUSING
ADDITIONAL CANADIAN AIRMASSES TO SPREAD IN.  THIS PATTERN WOULD KEEP
THE REGION UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH MORE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL VICINITIES THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THESE STORMS
WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF MVFR AND EVEN LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.
MOST OF THE STORMS WILL END BY LATE EVENING. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH MOST
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
500 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-292200-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
500 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
 OUTLOOK AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH
 HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...AND DAMAGING DOWN BURST WINDS IN
 EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

 VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
 FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME
 AREAS.

  SLOWER MOVING STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
  THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW STRONG
  TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60
  MPH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
214 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

MOZ056-057-281945-
MILLER MO-MORGAN MO-
214 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EAST CENTRAL MORGAN AND NORTHWESTERN
MILLER COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 212 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BARNETT...OR 7 MILES WEST OF ELDON...MOVING
EAST AT 10 MPH. WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN MORGAN AND NORTHWESTERN MILLER COUNTIES...INCLUDING
ELDON...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
438 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0437 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S BARNETT             38.35N 92.67W
07/28/2009                   MORGAN             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TWO REPORTS OF WATER RUNNING OVER THE ROAD SOUTH OF
            BARNETT ON AA HIGHWAY. WATER WAS REPORTED AS TOO DEEP TO
            DRIVE THROUGH.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

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