Severe Thunderstorm Warning 332, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
410 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THURSDAY AND A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVING FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND ARE THE
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR SALEM TO
ANDERSON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS
IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ALONG WITH LITTLE
TO NO CIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BACKBUILD SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO HIGH RAINFALL RATES IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND INTERACTS WITH
THE WEAK COLD FRONT. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI...AS CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND TRAINS NEAR THE FRONT. HAVE HELD OFF
ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE RECENT
RAINFALL.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT AN MCS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL
KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
THE MISSOURI OZARKS OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND BRINGING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO THE REGION.

ANGLE

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW. THE WEEKEND WILL BENEFIT THE MOST FROM THIS
PATTERN SHIFT AS A COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH SETTLES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND DOMINATES THE WEATHER INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. THE OZARKS CAN EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES AND LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS
IS SUPPORTED VIA LOCAL CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW AS 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS.
THIS CORRELATES TO LOWS IN THE 53 TO 57 DEGREE RANGE.

WITH NORTWEST FLOW IN CONTROL OF THE AREAS WEATHER...ANY SHORTWAVE
THAT MOVES OVER THE RIDGE MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WHILE
CURRENT FORECAST IF FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WOULD
NOT BE SUPRISED IF WE SAW A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS BY MID WEEK.

HATCH

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE AERODROMES
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. VISIBILITIES
COULD BE REDUCED TO IFR CATEGORY NEAR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO MOIST AIRMASS. LOWER CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY MORNING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CEILINGS.

ANGLE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
304 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-162015-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
304 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR
SALEM TO GALENA THROUGH 9 PM. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA AFTER 10 PM AS A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.
ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE AVAILABLE FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS TO AFFECT THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE REGION. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY STORM THAT BECOME SEVERE
WOULD BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...WINDS AROUND 60 MPH AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

NO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
NEAR SALEM TO GALENA THROUGH 9 PM.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

ANGLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
318 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             GLADDEN                 37.50N 91.46W
07/15/2009  E0.75 INCH       DENT               MO   PUBLIC

            30 MPH WINDS ESTIMATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS 1.5
            INCHES OF RAINFALL

&&

GCLAYCOM