Severe Thunderstorm Warning 326, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
241 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...

FOR THE THIRD NIGHT IN A ROW...CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A LOW
LEVEL ZONE OF BAROCLINICITY POSITIONED FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.  STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAD FORMED INTO
A BROKEN NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LINE...AND WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS MORNING.  THE
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE REGION FEATURED MIXED LAYER CAPES ON THE ORDER
OF 2000 J/KG...WITH ABOUT 30-35 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS MORNING...FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM NEVADA TO WEST PLAINS.

FOR THIS REASON...I HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS PLACED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.  CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY TODAY AS THIS REGION WILL EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT MID
LEVEL DRYING.  THIS DRIER AIR ALONG WITH COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL ELIMINATE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON PULSE
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL MISSOURI.

FOR TONIGHT...CENTRAL MISSOURI MAY FINALLY GET SOME CONVECTION AS
THE WRF SOLUTION SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THIS EVENING.  PARCEL MOVEMENT PERPENDICULAR TO
THIS ZONE OF BAROCLINITY WILL ALLOW THEM TO REACH THE LEVEL OF FREE
CONVECTION...MOST LIKELY OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.  THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS SIGNAL...AND HAS
STRUGGLED WITH THIS CONVECTIVE REGIME OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS...THEREFORE HAVE POP VALUES LEANED CLOSER TO THE WRF GUIDANCE
FOR TONIGHT.

AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY...A MAJOR SYNOPTIC CHANGE WILL OCCUR AT THE
SURFACE...AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO
THE CORN BELT.  THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE
ENTIRE CWA...CAUSING AFTERNOON READINGS TO WARM BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.  A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY...WILL ALLOW
LATER SHIFTS TO DETERMINE WHICH COUNTIES WILL NEED THE ADVISORY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE A
CHANGE AS THE SUMMERTIME HIGH RETROGRADES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND OZARKS
REGION...AND WILL ALLOW A DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS TO ADVECT OVER THE
AREA...CREATING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LESS HUMIDITY.  AS A
MATTER OF FACT...AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE NOW FORECASTED TO BE IN THE MID
80S THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE MAY BE AN EPISODE OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION AS THIS
CONTINENTAL AIR APPROACHES IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT.  WITH THE
SUMMERTIME AIR AND ITS RICH MOISTURE LEVELS IN PLACE...THIS FRONT
COULD PRODUCE A POTENT ROUND OF NORTHWEST FLOW CONVECTION...SOMETIME
DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

THERE ARE MULTIPLE AVIATION CONCERNS INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A
BAND OF STRATUS IS INDEED BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THIS DECK EXPANDING
INTO THE KSGF AREA...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW
ALONG THE PLATEAU. CEILINGS WITH THIS DECK WILL BE IN THE IFR
RANGE. AM STILL NOT CERTAIN THIS DECK WILL REALLY GET ESTABLISHED
AT KSGF AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT. THEREFORE WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR
CEILINGS AT KSGF. THINK THE LOW CLOUDS WILL STAY OUT OF KJLN. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT BOTH KJLN AND KSGF LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR
THESE STORMS AS TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. ONE FINAL
IMPACT WILL BE HAZE...WHICH MAY DROP VISIBILITIES INTO THE HIGHER
END MVFR RANGE OVERNIGHT AT KSGF.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1103 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-131200-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1103 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
  JET STREAM SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
  AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO
  60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. HEAVY
  RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

  PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
  MISSOURI. AT THIS TIME...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
  ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEVADA...TO SPRINGFIELD...TO
  BRANSON. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES
  WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AND THE
  EASTERN OZARKS TUESDAY...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
  WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE PERIODS OF
  THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

  HEAT INDEX VALUES AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE
  MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SCHAUMANN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
222 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2009

KSZ101-MOZ088-130800-
CHEROKEE KS-JASPER MO-
222 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CHEROKEE AND WESTERN JASPER
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

AT 221 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR WEST MINERAL...OR 3 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CARONA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  STIPPVILLE AND SKIDMORE BY 230 AM CDT.
  COLUMBUS BY 235 AM CDT.
  CRESTLINE AND NEUTRAL BY 245 AM CDT.
  GALENA...RIVERTON AND LOWELL BY 255 AM CDT.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE AIRPORT DRIVE...BAXTER SPRINGS...CARL
JUNCTION...CARONA...COLUMBUS...CRESTLINE...GALENA...LAWTON...
LOWELL...NEUTRAL...NORTHWESTERN JOPLIN...ORONOGO...RIVERTON...
ROSELAND...SCAMMON...SHERMAN...SHERWIN...SKIDMORE...STIPPVILLE...
WACO...WEIR AND WEST MINERAL.

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
247 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 AM     HAIL             COLUMBUS                37.17N 94.84W
07/13/2009  E0.75 INCH       CHEROKEE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ALSO ESTIMATED 40 MPH WIND GUSTS.

&&

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
248 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 AM     HAIL             CARTERVILLE             37.15N 94.44W
07/13/2009  E0.75 INCH       JASPER             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT VIA ESPOTTER.

&&

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
255 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 E BAXTER SPRINGS      37.02N 94.70W
07/13/2009  E70 MPH          CHEROKEE           KS   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES REPORTED DOWN IN BAXTER SPRINGS. ONE INCH HAIL ALSO
            REPORTED.

&&

DSA