Severe Thunderstorm Warning 302, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
319 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...

THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS COMPLEX AS MULTIPLE WEATHER FEATURES ARE
EXPECTED. HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE POTENTIAL FOR HOT AND MUGGY
CONDITION LATE THIS WEEK...AND A SLIGHT BREAK SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AND BEFORE HOT CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY...TWO MCSS THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ARE STILL ONGOING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ONE IS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND NOT AFFECT THE AREA. THE OTHER ONE
IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KANSAS CITY AND WILL PUSH SOUTH AND
MAY CLIP THE WESTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. A DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER
WITH THIS STORM ONGOING AND BRINGING ITS OWN MOISTURE WITH IT...I
SEE NO REASON TO WHY IT WILL NOT CONTINUE ITS SOUTHERN MARCH.
MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY...SO THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN HAZARDS EXPECTED.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY STAY WEST OF HIGHWAY 71 THIS
EVENING...AND MAY RIDE THE WESTERN CWA BORDER.

ANOTHER MCS OR TWO WILL ONCE AGAIN LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN
NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AN AREA
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND COULD SPARK OFF AN MCS. FEEL LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING...GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ELEVATED...AND CANNOT RULE OUT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH IT...
BUT GENERALLY THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

A WARMER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE FOLDS INTO THE AREA TOMORROW. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS VALUES
A FEW DEGREES...DUE TO THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER IN
THE MORNING HOURS SLOWING HEATING A BIT. OVERALL TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAYS AS THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO POSSIBLY UPPER 90S OUT WEST WITH
LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE
TOO OUT OF HAND...SO HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD NOT GET TOO OUT OF
HAND...BUT THE WESTERN CWA WILL FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY VALUES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BUILD ENOUGH OVER THE EASTERN CWA...AND IF IT DOES NOT...NIGHTLY
MCSS MAY EFFECT THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH THE WARM AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA A PRETTY GOOD CAP
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CWA WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY WHICH WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE OUT AND PUSH IT A TAD BACK
TO THE WEST BY SUNDAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT
TOO FAR SOUTH...BUT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO THE AREA...WHICH WILL WEAKEN
THE CAP. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...
AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED PULSE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE FRONT MAY
STALL NEAR THE NORTH CWA WHICH WOULD ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

THE RIDGE WILL NUDGE BACK TO THE EAST OVER THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. NIGHTLY MCSS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW EAST OF THE RIDGE SO THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE RIDGE WILL
DETERMINE WHERE AND IF ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE
AREA NEXT WEEK. HOT AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RETURN TO THE
AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THERE ARE HOWEVER...TWO LOW
CONFIDENCE ISSUES TO CONSIDER AS CAVEATS. A SMALL COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF KANSAS CITY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS
AFTERNOON. IF THIS ACTIVITY CAN HOLD TOGETHER...CURRENT TRENDS
WOULD PLACE SHRA/TSRA NEAR JLN/SGF 22Z. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR IN PLACE THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THIS ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING...THOUGH THERE AN OUTSIDE SHOT IT CAN SURVIVE. THERE
IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP IN A
NORTH TO SOUTH BAND ACROSS EITHER EASTERN KANSAS OR WESTERN
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE THIS BAND
WILL INITIALLY SET UP...HAVE JUST INCLUDED CB IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. FUTURE FORECASTS WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE IF AND WHERE THIS
ACTIVITY WILL INITIATE AND MOVE.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

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