Severe Thunderstorm Warning 273, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
213 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009

...DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES...

.DISCUSSION...

HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE EXCEEDED 110 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF LUSH /
MOIST VEGETATION CREATING HUMIDITY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES HEATING
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S IS CAUSING A HEAT WAVE OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE SUMMERTIME HIGH WAS CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT THIS BASIC PATTERN
WILL FAIL TO CHANGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WAS ISSUED IN RESPONSE TO DEW POINTS
MEASURED IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE PLATEAU...AN AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE
COOLER WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE LOWER.

ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND
UPPER 90S ARE A GOOD BET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO RELIEF WILL
BE FELT DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO
THE MID 70S. FOR THIS REASON...THE HEADLINES WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED WITH TIME. HOWEVER...ILL ALLOW THE MIDNIGHT SHIFTER MAKE THE
CALL TOMORROW MORNING ON HOW TO HANDLE ONGOING HEADLINES.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A SAGGING FRONT TO SWING THROUGH THE
CWA TOWARD THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS COULD BE THE FIRST
SIGN OF RELIEF FROM THIS WEEKS HEAT WAVE. AN EPISODE OF
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS COLD FRONT...WHICH IS THE
ONLY CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE ENTIRE 7 DAY FORECAST.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE TAFS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...AND WILL
VARY WITH A GENERAL RANGE FROM EAST NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE VERY LIGHT FOR THE
DURATION AND SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. KSGF WILL
LIKELY SEE A WEAK CUMULUS FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS AROUND 4K
FEET.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ079>083-089>098-
     101>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077-078-088.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1240 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-241745-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1240 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

 AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST
 OF A JOPLIN...TO STOCKTON...TO ROLLA LINE TODAY. HOT TEMPERATURES
 IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S...WILL COUPLE WITH UNSEASONABLY HIGH
 HUMIDITY TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 108 TO 113 DEGREES
 ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

 A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
 TODAY. HEAT INDEX READINGS RANGING FROM 103 TO 109 DEGREES
 WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

 TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 90S EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY
 THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 100 TO 110
 DEGREES. THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CREATE
 A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION ACROSS THE OZARKS. HEAT SAFETY
 PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

BARJENBRUCH

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