Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1012 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

A LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR AT 03Z. MIXED
LAYER CAPE DECREASED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG WHILE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION HAD INCREASED TO AROUND 200 J/KG. DEEP LAYERED SHEAR
WAS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND LESS THAN 30 KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. HOWEVER 0-1KM SHEAR WAS ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS.

THE LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...AND LIKELY REACH THE ARKANSAS BORDER AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

THE OVERALL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS DECREASED. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED IN
NATURE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. HOWEVER WIND GUSTS OF 30
TO 50 MPH WILL BE COMMON. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR CENTRAL MISSOURI
COUNTIES.

FLASH FLOODING WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE WITH A RICH MOISTURE
FETCH INTO THE SYSTEM. RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER
HOURS WILL OCCUR IN THE STRONGER CONVECTION. THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

FOSTER

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEEPING AN EYE ON CONVECTION TO THE NORTH WHICH LOW LEVEL JET HAS
BEEN FEEDING GOOD MOISTURE SUPPLY INTO MUCH OF THE DAY. CAPES HAVE
CREEPED INTO THE 3000-3500 J/KG RANGE OVER THE CWA AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS
STILL OUT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT
HERE IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHILE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE EAST SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION AND MAY AFFECT FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MOST LIKELY WILL NEED TO
WAIT FOR WESTERN CONVECTION TO MOVE IN THIS EVENING. GIVEN STRONG
INSTABILITY WOULD EXPECT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND TO BE THE
MAIN HAZARD THIS EVENING. BEST HELICITIES ARE IN THE NORTHWEST CWA
AND COULD SEE AN INITIAL ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT THERE. CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO FORM A SQUALL LINE DURING THE EVENING WITH A
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT DURING THE NIGHT.

SHOULD ALSO PROVE TO BE GOOD RAIN MAKERS WITH PWATS OF AROUND 1.5
INCHES. WITH ALL THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS...WILL BE ISSUING A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT INTO THE MID MORNING SATURDAY FOR WESTERN
HALF OF CWA.

FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING
SATURDAY AS FAIRLY STRONG CANADIAN AIR MASS PLUNGES SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END BY 18Z SATURDAY WITH
FAIRLY QUICK CLEARING WITH THE COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN.
WILL CERTAINLY NOT FEEL LIKE MID MAY COME SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHTS. CURRENTLY HAVE TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO LOW TO MID 40S
WHICH WILL APPROACH RECORD TERRITORY (SEE CLIMATE SECTION).

WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES OFF TO
THE EAST AND UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO SLIP EAST INTO THE AREA. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL
ADVANCE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE STORMS WILL
REACH THE JOPLIN AND SPRINGFIELD TERMINALS BY LATE EVENING. LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIKELY NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT A CLEARING SKY CAN BE EXPECTED
SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

FOSTER

&&

.CLIMATE...

LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FLIRT WITH RECORDS FOR THE
DATE. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR SUNDAY...MAY 17TH.

SITE           TEMPERATURE    YEAR
SPRINGFIELD        38         1973
JOPLIN             40         1973
WEST PLAINS        37         1973
VICHY/ROLLA        39         2002

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1004 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-170315-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1004 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
 PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...AND
 FLASH FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS
 THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STORMS SHOULD REACH THE
 ARKANSAS BORDER AROUND MIDNIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

 A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD
 SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MORE STABLE
 DURING THE EVENING WHICH IS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
 STORMS. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 50 MPH WILL BE COMMON ALONG THE LINE
 OF STORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
 AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

 SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING OVER EXTREME
 SOUTHERN MISSOURI AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE SOUTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI
 THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1025 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1004 PM     HAIL             2 S KENOMA              37.41N  94.20W
05/15/2009  E0.88 INCH       BARTON             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED DIME TO JUST LARGER THAN NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1047 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1046 PM     HAIL             1 N ASH GROVE           37.33N  93.58W
05/15/2009  E0.25 INCH       GREENE             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1103 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1103 PM     HAIL             REPUBLIC                37.12N  93.48W
05/15/2009  E0.25 INCH       GREENE             MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1105 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     HAIL             HALLTOWN                37.19N  93.63W
05/15/2009  E0.25 INCH       LAWRENCE           MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

HATCH

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