Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
514 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

A VERY ACTIVE NEXT 24 HOURS IS EXPECTED AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BARRELS THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERAL CONCERNS
REMAIN...INCLUDING THE LIKES OF SEVERE WEATHER...FLOODING...AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS. THESE CONCERNS WERE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN REMAIN FAIRLY
ACTIVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AT LEAST A FEW MORE SYSTEMS TO
IMPACT THE REGION.

TONIGHT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PULL OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTO NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA BY SUNRISE. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS
PANHANDLE REGION THIS EVENING AND THEN NORTHEAST ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
HAVE ALREADY ERUPTED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL PUSH INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS EVENING. OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS ARKANSAS AND
PUSH NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATER THIS EVENING. A BROKEN
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS. WE ARE STILL
LOOKING AT A SOLID ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL. DID THROW THE
SOUTHEAST KANSAS COUNTIES INTO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THOSE
AREAS MAY SEE A GOOD ONE TO TWO INCHES.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT TO QUICKLY EXIT CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI EITHER VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE.
WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION OVER MOST AREAS IN THE
MORNING AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND WHAT WILL BE A DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW. WE ARE AGAIN LOOKING AT ANOTHER VERY WINDY DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FOR
A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT TRIES TO WRAP INTO THE
REGION. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. WITH DECENT MIXING POTENTIAL AND HIGH MOMENTUMS JUST OFF
THE DECK...THE GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS GOOD. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
REALLY CRANK UP GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A
PROBABLE ISALLOBARIC CONTRIBUTION. WITH ALL THAT SAID...WENT AHEAD
WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERSPREADS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS ENERGY WILL TRACK
OVER OR NORTH OF THE OZARKS. MOISTURE MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO
RETURN WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...SO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS IN
DOUBT. DO BELIEVE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO
CARRY CHANCE POPS.

LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...LONG WAVE CHARTS CONTINUE
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. WE WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. GENERALLY MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
OF THESE WAVES. KEPT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...AWAITING THE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
SEVERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTH AFFECTING THE
SGF/JLN TERMINALS OVER THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE 00Z TAFS.
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES INTO THE 1 TO 2SM RANGE AND
CEILINGS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE CONVECTIVE
STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA. AFTER THE FROPA...WILL LIKLEY SEE IFR
CEILINGS DEVELOP AT BOTH LOCATIONS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE AFTER
SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
818 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-120230-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
818 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...

  WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH.
  GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL.
  ISOLATED TORNADOES.
  HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND EVENTUALLY A
LINE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...LARGE HAIL TO
GOLF BALL SIZE...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION:

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING AND WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI
OVERNIGHT. A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND SURFACE DRY
LINE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS
WHICH HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT
EAST AND ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL ALSO
HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE STORMS...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
THE STORMS. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT TONIGHT.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AND IN A WINTER MONTH. EMERGENCY
MANAGERS AND MEDIA ARE ENCOURAGED TO EMPHASIZE THE POTENTIAL OF
THIS SPRING LIKE STORM AND RAISE AWARENESS OF IT OCCURRING AT
NIGHT EVEN THOUGH THE CALENDAR SAYS FEBRUARY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN MISSOURI OZARKS. THE SEVERE STORM
THREAT WILL END ACROSS THESE AREAS BY 9 AM. RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.

WIND GUSTS UP TO OR GREATER THAN 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
756 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0753 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     6 NNW MCCUNE            37.43N  95.06W
02/10/2009                   CRAWFORD           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORT A FUNNEL CLOUD 6 MILES
            NORTHWEST OF MCCUNE

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
908 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0814 PM     HAIL             4 W GIRARD              37.51N  94.91W
02/10/2009  E0.88 INCH       CRAWFORD           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS

&&

BARJENBRUCH