River Flood Warning 59, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
550 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES SIGNIFICANT CLOUD BREAKS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THESE BREAKS ARE STARTING TO WORK INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE WARM FRONT HAS
SHIFTED NORTH...AND WAS LOCATED FROM EXTREME SOUTHERN TANEY COUNTY
TO NEAR ALTON IN OREGON COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS ARE NEAR 80 DEGREES...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000
J/KG...WITH VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.

VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI WITH A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON THE AREA...FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO PULL NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. AS OF 5 PM...THIS LOW
WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF TULSA OKLAHOMA. WINDS HAVE BACKED TO
SOUTHERLY JUST EAST OF THIS LOW. MODIFIED HODOGRAPHS YIELD 0 TO 1
KM HELICITIES APPROACHING 400 M2/S2.

WE WILL THEREFORE HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND THOSE PUSHING OUT OF OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINAL TORNADO POTENTIAL IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS THAT CAN DEVELOP GIVEN THE STRONG MOMENTUMS
JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THE HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING ANALYSIS AND FORECAST.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN EPISODE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. ALTHOUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI HAS BEEN SPARED UP TO THIS
POINT...THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA STARTING
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WAS ON THE NEXT 12
HOURS...WITH THIS EVENT BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THERE ALSO REMAINS A SMALL WINDOW FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO THIS EVENING. ONCE THE RAINFALL
ENDS...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THE MECHANISMS ARE INDEED IN PLACE FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. LATEST ANALYSIS AND SHORT TERM MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS INDICATED A BAND OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STRETCHING
FROM NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS. STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES OVER THIS AREA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MEANWHILE...A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET HAS PUT THE
REGION IN AN AREA OF STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL ASCENT.
THUS...DEEP UPWARD OMEGA IS IN PLACE. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF ONE AND THREE QUARTERS TO TWO INCHES IN PLACE...VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE RESULT. THE MAIN AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST WITH TIME TONIGHT WITH THAT FRONTOGENETIC
BAND...WITH MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL OUT OF HERE BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. ALL IN ALL...WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES LIKELY.

ALTHOUGH A WIDE FRONTOGENETIC BAND EXISTS IN THE LOW LEVELS..TWO
DISTINCT SURFACE FRONTS WILL COME INTO PLAY. THE MAIN FRONT OF
FOCUS FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR
OKLAHOMA CITY TO MOUNTAIN HOME AND POPLAR BLUFF. A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS EXISTS SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...WITH MID 70 SURFACE DEW
POINTS COMMON. THE RICHEST MOISTURE IS STRUGGLING TO GET THROUGH
THE BOSTON MOUNTAINS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTH ABOUT 40 MORE MILES THIS EVENING...PUTTING A SMALL
PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI IN THE TRUE WARM SECTOR.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIMITED...WITH MLCAPES AT OR
BELOW 500 J/KG. STRONGER INSTABILITIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE NOTED. GIVEN A VEERED
LOW LEVEL JET...LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS DO SUPPORT A MARGINAL TORNADO
THREAT. WITH VERY LOW LCL HEIGHTS...WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO
THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO A CONCERN WITH ANY
BOWED STRUCTURES.

FRIDAY THEN LOOKS LIKE A RAW DAY WITH A BRISK NORTH WIND AND COOL
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 DEGREES
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. AGAIN...THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL END ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. KEPT
THE FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE WITH
APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT FROM THE HEAVY
RAINFALL. AM CURRENTLY GOING WITH MID TO UPPER 30S...A MAV/MET
BLEND.

MAINLY WENT DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK
REMAINING NORTH. MODELS SHOW QUITE A VARIETY WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPERATURES...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL. STUCK CLOSER TO WARMER MAV NUMBERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AS MET NUMBERS ARE AWFULLY COOL. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO GO
SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HAVE MAINTAINED MID TO
UPPER 30S INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LONG WAVE CHARTS CONTINUE TO HINT
AT UPPER LEVEL RIDING STARTING AROUND MIDWEEK...SO HAVE TRENDED
TEMPERATURES UP. THIS MAY BE OUR NEXT SHOT AT PRECIPITATION...BUT
LITTLE MODEL CONSISTENCY DICTATES ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WITH PRECIPITATION...AND
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DEGRADE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA.  WINDS
WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

KARDELL

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
746 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-100100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
746 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE EXPECTED
AS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE INTERACTS WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OF AREA
STREAMS...CREEKS...LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS.
MINOR AND POSSIBLY MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF AN EMINENCE TO
FORSYTH LINE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE
AREA AND HELPED TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE THERE. STRONG WIND
SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL CREATE A CHANCE
FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND A LIMITED RISK
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

 RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY MIDDAY
 FRIDAY. EXCESS RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE THE RISK OF RESIDUAL
 FLOODING.

 CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
 WEEK AS A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION. LOW
 TEMPERATURES MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK...OR AT LEAST COLD
 ENOUGH TO A SUPPORT FROST. CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
 FROST OR FREEZE IS LOW AT THIS TIME...THOSE SENSITIVE TO A
 POTENTIAL FROST OR FREEZE ARE URGED TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
 FORECAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT SOUTH OF AN EMINENCE TO FORSYTH LINE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG

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