Flash Flood Warning 98, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 270149
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
849 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2009

MOC149-270200-
/O.CAN.KSGF.FF.W.0098.000000T0000Z-090627T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OREGON MO-
849 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR OREGON COUNTY...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3649 9165 3688 9142 3688 9123 3683 9122
      3683 9112 3682 9111 3652 9112 3650 9113

$$

WISE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
527 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY WITH THE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING IN
PLACE. TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S
HAVE PRODUCED HEAT INDEXES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WARM SLIGHTLY. THUS LIKE
PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE CONTINUED THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PATTERN THEN UNDERGOES SOME CHANGES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD. THE REGION
THEN COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW. A COLD FRONT
WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE OZARKS BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE THE STRENGTH
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. CURRENT MODELS HAVE THE FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 06Z SUNDAY. IF IF MOVES A BIT QUICKER THE
STORMS MIGHT BE A BIT STRONGER AS THEY TAP INTO MORE INSTABILITY.
WITH THE TIME OF YEAR THOUGH IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SEE A REALLY
STRONG FRONT MAKE IT THIS FAR. SO WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A LINE OF
STORMS OR SQUALL LINE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS PRODUCING WINDS GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND MAYBE SOME HAIL TO
QUARTER SIZE. ONE OF THE MORE NOTABLE IMPACTS OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE THE DRIER AIR MASS THAT FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. THIS WILL HELP MITIGATE THE HIGH HEAT INDEXED AS DEWPOINTS
WILL BE LOWER THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID 80 FOR
SUNDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

HATCH

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

THE ECMWF DIGS AN H5 LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...CUTS IT OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BEGINS
TO LIFT IT OUT AT THE END.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE CURRENTLY
SITTING OVER THE PLAINS TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES.

THIS WILL BRING A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION. DID ADJUST DAYTIME HIGHS DOWN A BIT ESPECIALLY IN THE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME FRAMES.  H85 TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN INTO
THE MID TEENS...WHICH SHOULD PUT OUR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80
TO LOWER 90 RANGE. TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO LOWER DAYTIME HEAT INDICES.

TEMPERATURES THEN BEGIN TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

ALSO KEPT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT
INTO THE GULF STATES AND WASHES IT OUT AROUND MID WEEK.

GAEDE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORM WHICH DEVELOPED EAST OF THE JLN
TERMINAL LOCATION DIMINISHED WITH OUTFLOW PUSHING THROUGH THE JLN
TERMINAL LOCATION AS OF 2225Z. NOT SEEING MUCH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT WILL THROW IN CB TERMINOLOGY
IN FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE JLN TAF. SHOULD REMAIN IN
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
OVERNIGHT MVFR VISIBILITIES AS LIGHT FOG DEVELOPED THE PAST COUPLE
OF NIGHTS. WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE A BIT HIGHER THAN PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS SO WILL LEAVE ABOVE 6SM FOR NOW.

LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1256 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-271800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1256 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
90S ALONG WITH HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 DEGREES.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS NEAR 60 MPH AND DIME SIZE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S ALONG WITH HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 DEGREES.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL OZARKS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI SUNDAY MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
60 MPH WINDS...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
429 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2009

MOZ106-262200-
OREGON MO-
429 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SOUTHERN OREGON COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM
CDT...

AT 428 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES EAST OF ALTON...OR 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THAYER...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH. WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ALTON AND COUCH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN OREGON COUNTY...INCLUDING ALTON...SHOULD MONITOR
THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

WISE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
437 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2009

MOZ088-262200-
JASPER MO-
437 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EAST CENTRAL JASPER COUNTY UNTIL 500
PM CDT...

AT 436 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR AVILLA...OR 9 MILES EAST OF
CARTHAGE...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH. HALF INCH SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE AVILLA AND REEDS.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 23 AND 27 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN JASPER COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

WISE