Flash Flood Warning 174, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 230115
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
815 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2009

MOC015-029-085-131-141-230400-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0174.000000T0000Z-091023T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HICKORY MO-CAMDEN MO-MILLER MO-BENTON MO-MORGAN MO-
815 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
BENTON...CAMDEN...MORGAN...NORTHERN HICKORY AND WESTERN MILLER
COUNTIES...

AT 814 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT 
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY WAS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING 
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT AN INCH TO AN INCH AND 
THREE QUARTERS OF RAIN FELL EARLIER THURSDAY.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS CAUSING FLASH FLOODING.
CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS THAT THE LOW WATER CROSSING AT CABLE 
RIDGE ROAD AND RAINY CREEK REMAINS FLOODED AND IMPASSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. DO
NOT ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO
ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN
WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 9284 3860 9285 3844 9263 3843 9241
      3789 9241 3791 9353 3804 9351 3818 9351
      3821 9353 3851 9352 3851 9329 3854 9327
      3854 9308 3870 9306

$$

SCHAUMANN

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 230400
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1100 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2009

MOC015-029-085-131-141-230409-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0174.000000T0000Z-091023T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HICKORY MO-CAMDEN MO-MILLER MO-BENTON MO-MORGAN MO-
1100 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1100 PM CDT FOR BENTON...
CAMDEN...MORGAN...NORTHERN HICKORY AND WESTERN MILLER COUNTIES...

THIS WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR SMALL 
STREAMS UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY.

LAT...LON 3869 9284 3860 9285 3844 9263 3843 9241
      3789 9241 3791 9353 3804 9351 3818 9351
      3821 9353 3851 9352 3851 9329 3854 9327
      3854 9308 3870 9306

$$

SCHAUMANN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
307 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH
RAIN EXITING TO THE EAST TONIGHT....THEN WITH PRECIPITATION LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY...AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
MIDDLE OF WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS LOW AND IS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. A
SHIELD OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE RAINFALL COVERS THE EASTERN
CWA...GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. TO THE
WEST A DRY SLOT IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA...LIMITING THE
PRECIPITATION TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE AND OR SPRINKLES VARIETY.

AN AREA OF MODERATE RAINFALL CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THIS
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL LIKELY ROTATE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.
THE RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...AS THEY ARE GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH PER
HOUR. HOWEVER...IF THIS ACTIVITY TRAINS OVER THE SAME LOCATION
FOR SEVERAL HOURS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL ACCUMULATE. WITH THE
SATURATED GROUNDS...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING
ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING. THE OVERALL THREAT
FOR FLOODING IS LOW...HOWEVER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT YET.

BY MIDNIGHT THE RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY TAPER OFF...AS THE LOW
SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT PUNCHES
INTO THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND COOL
AIRMASS...FRIDAY HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN A COOL AND DREARY DAY TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SOME THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED...SO INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED AS WELL.
THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG THE FRONT...BUT HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT AT THIS TIME DUE TO
THE LACK OF INSTABILITY.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER FROM EACH OTHER AND
FROM RUN TO RUN WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM IS STILL UNCLEAR. WHAT IS KNOWN IS THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA...AND SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM WITH
FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH WRAP AROUND DRIZZLE AND LOW
CEILINGS. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION CLOUDY WITH IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THOUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING GIVING WAY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WHERE BANDS OF MID OR UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

HATCH

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1256 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-231800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1256 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

 LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH
 CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
 AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTH
 CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH THE SATURATED GROUNDS
 LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
 MISSOURI MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE.

INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
  OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
  AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WISE