Flash Flood Warning 148, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 200945
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
445 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

MOC065-161-169-215-201300-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0148.000000T0000Z-090920T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TEXAS MO-PULASKI MO-PHELPS MO-DENT MO-
445 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT FOR
NORTHERN TEXAS...PHELPS...SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI AND WESTERN DENT
COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF VERY 
HEAVY RAINFALL HAD OCCURRED OVER PARTS OF THE WARNING AREA SINCE 1 
AM. RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF 2 TO 3.5 INCHES HAVE OCCURRED IN A BAND 
FROM LICKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EDGAR SPRINGS AND ST. JAMES 
AREAS. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE IS CAPABLE 
OF PRODUCING THE FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS...CREEKS...AND 
STREAMS. 

MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOW MOVING OUT OF THE WARNING 
AREA...BUT SOME ISOLATED BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE 
THROUGH 6 AM. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3741 9171 3749 9224 3778 9221 3795 9202
      3801 9203 3801 9197 3804 9195 3804 9193
      3806 9191 3805 9164 3816 9164 3816 9154
      3780 9154 3777 9147

$$

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 201234
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
734 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

MOC065-161-169-215-201242-
/O.CAN.KSGF.FF.W.0148.000000T0000Z-090920T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TEXAS MO-PULASKI MO-PHELPS MO-DENT MO-
734 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN TEXAS...
PHELPS...SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI AND WESTERN DENT COUNTIES...

THIS WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR ROUGHLY 
THE SAME AREA. THE NEW WARNING IS VALID UNTIL 1100 AM. 

LAT...LON 3741 9171 3749 9224 3778 9221 3795 9202
      3801 9203 3801 9197 3804 9195 3804 9193
      3806 9191 3805 9164 3816 9164 3816 9154
      3780 9154 3777 9147

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1223 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...

A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD EVENT CONTINUES THIS EVENING OVER NORTHERN
BARRY AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY EXCEEDING
SIX INCHES IN SOME CASES OVER EASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY.
UNFORTUNATELY...LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER HOUR. THERE HAS ACTUALLY BEEN
RECENT DEVELOPMENT FARTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST
GREENE AND THE CHRISTIAN COUNTY PANHANDLE.

LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DIVERGENT AREA
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...WITH A THETA E MAXIMA EXTENDING
BACK TOWARDS OKLAHOMA. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE OZARK PLATEAU
IS PLAYING A ROLE WITH THE KSGF VWP SHOWING A FAVORABLE PROFILE
FOR UPSLOPE FROM SOUTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTY INTO BARRY COUNTY.
THE 00Z KSGF RAOB IS VERY TELLING WITH NEAR SATURATION UP THROUGH
AND ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. WARM RAIN PROCESSES ARE INDEED AT
WORK WITH VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. PRECIPITABLE WATERS CAME
IN RIGHT AROUND 1.75 INCHES. THEREFORE DO NOT SEE AN END TO THE
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ALONG THE SOUTHERN OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS THE FORECAST HIGHLIGHT.

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK IS BEGINNING TO KICK NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. STRONG
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG THE 310K SURFACE HAS PRODUCED NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SUNDAY WITH THE LOW
EJECTING EAST.

FOCUS OF THE FORECAST THEN TURNS TO A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH IN THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AHEAD
OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH GULF MOISTURE
SURGING NORTH. FORECAST PROGS OF STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND
MARGINAL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A PRIMARY RISK OF HAIL FOLLOWED BY WIND. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROJECTED OVER AN INCH AND A HALF...FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN
ALONG THE FRONT AND WHERE THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS DEVELOP.

THE NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW.
HOWEVER...CONSENSUS FROM THERE DIVERGES GREATLY ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW. SOLUTIONS VARY FROM THE GFS...ALONG WITH THE GFS
ENSEMBLES RETROGRADING THE LOW TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE
UKMET AND CANADIAN MODELS STALLING THE LOW OVER KANSAS. NEEDLESS
TO SAY...EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE BIG IMPLICATIONS ON
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE ECMWF WHICH IS
A REASONABLE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE OUTLIERS. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
AND REFINEMENT TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE MADE TO INCREASE
OR DECREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONCE MODEL CONTINUITY
STRENGTHENS.

ANGLE

&&

.AVIATION...

LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KBBG INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE FLIGHT CATEGORIES SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FLIGHT
CATEGORIES ARE A BIT MORE IN QUESTION AT KSGF AND KJLN THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PREVAIL INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT BOTH TERMINALS. BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AROUND KSGF.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE WE COULD SEE SOME STRATUS BUILD
DOWN ALONG THE OZARK PLATEAU. WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE KSGF TAF...BUT THIS POTENTIAL SCENARIO WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1159 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-201200-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1159 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
  ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA...BUT NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

  ISOLATED FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
  INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS
  WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS A LOW
  PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS. NO SEVERE
  WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

  A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE MONDAY INTO
  TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE OZARKS. THIS FEATURE
  WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE...TRIGGERING A
  COMPLEX OF STORMS. AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
  WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
  WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
  GRADUALLY MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND APPROACHING THE
  OZARKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WFO SGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
901 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MONETT                  36.92N 93.93W
09/19/2009                   BARRY              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS ONGOING AT MARSHALL MOBILE HOME
            PARK IN MONETT. NUMEROUS ROADS ARE INUNDATED. KELLY CREEK
            IS AT BANKFULL.

&&

MTERRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
959 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MONETT                  36.92N 93.93W
09/19/2009  M7.75 INCH       BARRY              MO   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY MEDIA.

&&

MTERRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1021 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NE MONETT             36.95N 93.89W
09/19/2009                   LAWRENCE           MO   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS COUNTY ROADS FLOODED.

&&

MTERRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1146 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1143 PM     FLASH FLOOD      N MARIONVILLE           37.00N 93.64W
09/19/2009                   LAWRENCE           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESTIMATED UP TO ELEVIN INCHES
            HAS CAUSED SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
            AND EASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY. A WATER RESCUE IS IN
            PROGRESS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY
            T.

&&

DCRAMER