Flash Flood Warning 123, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 170111
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
811 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2009

MOC203-170600-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0123.000000T0000Z-090817T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SHANNON MO-
811 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN SHANNON COUNTY...

AT 811 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PRODUCED THE HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER THIS 
EVENING HAD DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...RADAR ESTIMATES THAT TWO TO THREE 
INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN A TWO HOUR PERIOD EARLIER THIS EVENING...THUS 
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL IN 
THE BIRCH CREEK TRIBUTARY JUST TO THE WEST OF BIRCH TREE.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING LOW WATER
CROSSINGS...

ROUTE MM SOUTH OF BIRCH TREE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3689 9167 3696 9167 3710 9166 3711 9134
      3688 9134

$$

SCHAUMANN

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 170216
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
916 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2009

MOC203-170224-
/O.CAN.KSGF.FF.W.0123.000000T0000Z-090817T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SHANNON MO-
916 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTHWESTERN
SHANNON COUNTY...

CALLS TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT INDICATE THAT NO FLOODING IS 
OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SHANNON COUNTY...THUS THE WARNING HAS 
BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3689 9167 3696 9167 3710 9166 3711 9134
      3688 9134

$$

SCHAUMANN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
629 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...WEAK SHEAR AXIS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE AREA. THE LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING
MOISTURE INTO THIS REGION OF LIFT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...THOUGH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON TO MAINTAIN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. NOT EVERYONE WILL GET WET...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...BUT THERE
WILL BE SHRA/TSRA DOTTING THE LANDSCAPE INTO THIS EVENING. TEMPS
REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA...IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
IN RAIN FREE AREAS AND 70S/80S WHERE RAIN IS OCCURRING.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...COMPLEX FORECAST THAT WILL HINGE
GREATLY ON MESOSCALE DETAILS. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM STJ TO JUST WEST OF
ICT. ALOFT...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO CHURN EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES ARE ROTATING THIS FEATURE...THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL
SPREAD OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT/TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN MCS
DEVELOPING OVER KS TONIGHT. FED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET...THIS MCS
SHOULD MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IN A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER MCS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS KS MONDAY
NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT
OF THESE MCS PASSAGES SHOULD PLACE THE SFC COLD FRONT OVER THE
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET GETS GEARED UP AGAIN.

SO WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...EXACT DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AT OR BELOW AVERAGE MONDAY...WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS WHERE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE OCCURS. TUESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE EVERYWHERE IF THE MCS THAT DEVELOPS OVER KS
MOVES OVER THE REGION. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS SOME BUST
POTENTIAL TO TEMPS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODELS STILL AGREE ON MOVING THE SFC
BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
REMOVE POPS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN IF
THE FRONT GETS NORTH OF THE AREA...THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH
OF A CAP TO PREVENT SPORADIC DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA. THERE IS
INCREASING AGREEMENT WITH RESPECTS TO A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AS THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
STARTS TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER THURSDAY IF WE CAN ATTAIN INSTABILITY...TIMING WILL BE KEY
HERE.

OVERALL...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING.

FRIDAY ONWARD...MED RANGE MODELS AGREE WITH SHIFTING A TROUGH
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. SOME DISAGREEMENTS REMAIN WITH JUST HOW
QUICKLY THIS FEATURE WILL HEAD EAST...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR
A COLD FRONT TO BE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY WITH COOLER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION. IN FACT...IF THE OPS ECMWF AND GFS ARE
ANYWHERE NEAR CORRECT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE...
BY TEN OR MORE DEGREES. HAVE STARTED THE TREND OF CUTTING
TEMPERATURES...THOUGH IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO CUT THEM MORE IF
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OF 10C COME CLOSE TO VERIFYING.

GAGAN

&&

.AVIATION...

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION TOMORROW.  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA AGAIN TOMORROW.  NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.  TOMORROW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REFORM IN THE
WITH INCREASING SURFACE INSTABILITY...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY FOR THE PERIOD.

KARDELL

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
311 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-172015-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
311 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED EAST
OF A LINE FROM OSAGE BEACH TO SPRINGFIELD TO CASSVILLE. BRIEF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY. DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH STORMS THAT
BECOME SEVERE.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER AROUND THE AREA TUESDAY... LIFTING
BACK TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL...ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN BOUTS OF THUNDERSTORMS.

A POTENT COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

ANGLE