Flash Flood Warning 119, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1144 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS OUR LARGE SCALE PATTERN
SHIFTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WE WILL ACTUALLY LOSE OUR
NORTHWEST FLOW FOR A CHANGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. UNTIL THIS HAPPENS...THE THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. FOCUS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO HEAT AND HUMIDITY BY THE WEEKEND.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE WILL BE A CAP
TO OVERCOME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. HAVE THEREFORE
PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 65
CORRIDOR. STILL THINK HOWEVER WE WILL SEE A FEW STORMS ACROSS
WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. STRONG INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LOW END SEVERE
HAIL AND WIND THREAT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO DECREASE LATER
THIS EVENING AS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET STARTS OFF QUITE VEERED
AND WILL ADD LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ASCENT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THAT FRONT WILL TEND TO STALL OUT
CLOSE TO THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER. AREAS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI
EXTENDING BACK WEST AND NORTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL SEE THE BEST SHOT AT STORMS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A CAP IN PLACE THAT WILL HOLD DOWN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT AND AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD
WEAKEN THE CAP FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY AND SLIGHTLY BETTER WIND
SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA. INTERESTINGLY...FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS MAY INITIALLY SUPPORT SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. FEELING IS
THAT ANY DISCRETE ACTIVITY MAY THEN GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD THEN
BECOME A BIGGER CONCERN. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER VERY WARM
AND HUMID DAY. THE MAV SEEMS A TOUCH WARM...SO HAVE GONE CLOSER
TOO THE COOLER MET.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THAT FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AREA. WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE
REMNANTS OF AN MCS THURSDAY MORNING. MAY THEN SEE ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT. DECIDED TO GO WITH BLANKET CHANCE POPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON STORMS...BUT GENERALLY
STUCK CLOSE TO A MAV/MET BLEND.

LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THAT RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION ENDING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE MIDDLE
20S CELSIUS. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OUT
WEST...BUT STILL DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL FOR SURFACE DEW POINTS
OUT THAT FAR. WILL CONTINUE TO HIT THESE CONCERNS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THAT RIDGE WILL TEND TO FLATTEN WITH
TIME...WHICH WILL AGAIN MAKE US SUSCEPTIBLE TO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TRIMMED TEMPERATURES BACK A CATEGORY FROM WHAT THEY WILL
BE THIS WEEKEND AND WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST
POINTS CONTINUES TO BACKBUILD LATE THIS EVENING. A FEW UPDRAFTS
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER STONE AND CHRISTIAN COUNTIES AND MAY
AFFECT THE BBG TERMINAL OVERNIGHT WITHIN THIS TAF CYCLE. WILL
THROW IN SOME CB WORDING AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF
HOURS. WHILE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ONGOING AT SGF/JLN...NOT
EXPECTING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AT THESE LOCATIONS.

LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1029 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-060330-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1029 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A SALEM TO BRANSON LINE. THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL...IN ADDITION
TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THAT FRONT BEGINS TO STALL NEAR THE MISSOURI
AND ARKANSAS BORDER. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 60
CORRIDOR. STRONG INSTABILITY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SHEAR
VALUES MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY THEN DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AND
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 DEGREES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
948 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

MOZ082-097-098-050345-
SHANNON MO-TEXAS MO-HOWELL MO-
948 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHEASTERN HOWELL...SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN SHANNON COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

AT 947 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ARROLL...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF MOUNTAIN
VIEW...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND
50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ALLEY SPRING...ARROLL...BIRCH TREE...CLEAR
SPRINGS...EUNICE...MONTIER...MOUNTAIN VIEW...PINE CREST...
SUMMERSVILLE...TERESITA...WEST EMINENCE AND WINONA.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN HOWELL...SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
SHANNON COUNTIES...INCLUDING BIRCH TREE AND WINONA...SHOULD MONITOR
THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LINDENBERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1133 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

MOZ096-097-050530-
DOUGLAS MO-HOWELL MO-
1133 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EASTERN DOUGLAS AND HOWELL COUNTIES
UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

AT 1133 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTH OF SILOAM SPRINGS...OR 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WILLOW SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BRANDSVILLE...LANTON...POMONA...
POTTERSVILLE...SILOAM SPRINGS...SOUTH FORK...WEST PLAINS AND WHITE
CHURCH.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN DOUGLAS AND HOWELL COUNTIES...INCLUDING WEST
PLAINS...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LINDENBERG