Wind Advisory 12, NWS Blacksburg, VA

000 
WWUS71 KRNK 131823
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
223 PM EDT MON APR 13 2009

...STRONG SOUTH WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING...

VAZ007-WVZ042-131930-
/O.CAN.KRNK.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-090413T2200Z/
TAZEWELL-MERCER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAZEWELL...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP
223 PM EDT MON APR 13 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

SOUTH WINDS ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS MAY
STILL GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
711 AM EDT MON APR 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST INTO THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ALONG THE FRONT BY TUESDAY...AND EVENTUALLY MERGE OFFSHORE WITH
THE LOW SLIDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP RATHER COOL AND WET CONDITIONS
IN PLACE TODAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LEADING EDGE OF THE VERY LIGHT RAIN AXIS NOW PUSHING TOWARD THE
FAR SW COUNTIES SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE FAR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE
FADING PER VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE. ONCE THIS INIT AREA
DIMINISHES...LOTS OF QUESTIONS WITH DEGREE OF COVERAGE LATER ON AS
AREA MAY REMAIN IN SPLIT BETWEEN BEST SUPPORT PASSING WEST UNDER
THE SURFACE LOW AND CONVECTIVE RH ROBBERY TO THE SOUTH. LATEST GFS
SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO GIVEN QPF SPLIT WHILE THE NAM/CANADIAN
APPEAR OVERDONE WITH STRONG LIFT HEADING EAST INTO THE RESIDUAL
RIDGING. LOCAL WRF SEEMS TO BE MORE ON TRACK WITH SOME LIGHT QPF
WEST EARLY ON...THEN SPOTTY -RA OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE THRU EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE ISENT LIFT INCREASES LATER AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH 3H SPEED MAX DIFFLUENCE AND
UPSLOPE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME FILL IN OF PRECIP ESPCLY WESTERN
HALF LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS REBOUND. THUS SPED UP POPS
SOME EARLY THIS MORNING WEST AND ADJUSTED DOWN SOME OUT EAST UNTIL
MID/LATE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR DRY WEDGING. OTRW KEEPING TREND
OF INCREASING TO CAT/LIKELY POPS MOST SECTIONS FOR NOW. SE JET
ALSO PICKS UP ACROSS THE SW ZONES THIS AFTERNOON IN TYPICAL WARM
ADVECTION REGIME UNDER JET. MAY BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
TAZEWELL/MERCER CTYS SO BOOSTED SPEEDS TO JUST BELOW CRITERIA.
HIGH TEMPS REMAIN TRICKY GIVEN A WARMER START THAN EXPECTED AND
ONLY LIGHT PRECIP. HOWEVER LOOKS LIKE MOS LIKELY A BIT WARM EXCEPT
FAR SW SO ONLY TWEAKED HIGHS UP A CAT OR TWO MAINLY EAST.

DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK LOW FORMING ALONG THE
FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WEDGE IN PLACE. LOOKS
LIKE BEST CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST UNDER OLD S/W AXIS
AND IN DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE WEDGE. HOWEVER AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION NEAR THE SE COAST MAY AGAIN TEND TO LIMIT LIFT...WITH
MORE OF A -RA/DZ SCENARIO MOST SPOTS GIVEN WARM ADVECTION/WEAK
DIFFLUENCE OVERTOP THE COOL POOL. THEREFORE KEEPING HIGH POPS FOR
MAINLY LIGHT QPF EXCEPT POSSIBLE A BIT HEAVIER PIEDMONT. TEMPS
LIKELY NOT TO CHANGE MUCH OVERNIGHT UNDER THE WEDGE WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOLLOWING THE ECMWF/GEM THIS PERIOD AS IT SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS BETTER. THE GFS
STARTS SUFFERING SOME GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK ISSUES...ALTHOUGH ITS QPF
PATTERN SEEMS TO BE NOT TOO BAD IN TERMS OF LOCATION.

EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO TRACK SLOWLY FROM THE WRN OHIO VALLEY 12Z
TUESDAY TO OFF THE NC/VA COAST 12Z THU...WEAKENING DURING THIS TIME.
AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH A COOL WEDGE IN PLACE PER HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED OVER ONTARIO AND A RAIN INDUCED WEDGE TAKING SHAPE
AS ANOTHER SFC WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG ERN NC. THIS MILLER-B PATTERN
WILL KEEP SFC CONVERGENCE WITH PLENTY OF LIFT IN PLACE AND MOISTURE
TO GO WITH A CHILLY RAIN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE
MAIN COASTAL LOW TAKES OVER AND SHIFT FURTHER EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LEAVING THE WEAKER LOW/SFC TROUGH HANGING BACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPS. WILL TAPER POPS BACK TUE NIGHT AS SOME DRY SLOTTING
SHOULD BE TAKING PLACE OVER THE SRN CWA. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
WEST/EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE 00Z ECMWF ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
AREA WITH A POOL OF COLDER AIR BY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL TREND
TOWARD TO COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL HAVE MUCH MORE
SUNSHINE SO TEMPERATURES WITH APRIL SUN WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME A MORE COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL
BE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE RESULT WILL BE
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BY
SUNDAY. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE POSITION OF THE BACK DOOR FRONT
ON SUNDAY WILL STAY CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH SOME LOWER CIGS
ACROSS THE SW WHERE A BATCH OF -RA EXISTS.. THERE COULD BE SOME
-RA FROM THIS AXIS OF PRECIP AROUND KBLF THRU 14Z...BUT OVERALL
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THRU THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE A
FACTOR AT TIMES THOUGH...AS A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TOWARD 40
KNOTS. THIS COULD BRING SOME TURBULENCE ISSUES INTO THE MTNS. FOR
NOW...WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS AT BLF TODAY...UP TO 25 KNOTS.

THE AIRMASS WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOISTEN...SO GOING TO DELAY THE
LOWER CIGS UNTIL AFTERNOON...THEN SHOULD SEE MVFR CIG/VSBY FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT RAIN. MODELS ARE BRINGING CIGS INTO
IFR/LIFR RANGE...BUT NOT CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN DUE TO
THE DRIER AIR...HOWEVER...POTENTIAL IS BEST FOR THIS TO HAPPEN
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW...AT
ROA/LYH/DAN AFTER 00Z.

AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND FINALLY OFFSHORE
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RETURN TO VFR POSSIBLE WED NIGHT-THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM
ALLOWING A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW TO TAKE SHAPE. VFR LOOKS TO
DOMINATE THE OUTLOOK PERIOD ON FRIDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/WP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
400 AM EDT MON APR 13 2009

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ043>045-140800-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-
FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-
FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-
BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
400 AM EDT MON APR 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ007-WVZ042-140800-
TAZEWELL-MERCER-
400 AM EDT MON APR 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 45 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS WHERE CHANNELING WILL OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.