Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
250 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN
OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER
WEATHER WILL FINALLY MAKE A RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART INTO THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE CAPE VALUES RUNNING 2500+ ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTION OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS MOVING THROUGH THIS REGION
ARE PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE DISPLAYING INVERTED-V PROFILES FOR LYH AND
DAN. SPC HAS ISSUED WATCHES FOR OUR EASTERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES THROUGH
10 PM.

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD PULL OUT QUICKLY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST COAST. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER DRY AIR INTO THE REGION INTO THE DAY SATURDAY.

SEVERAL MODELS ARE DISPLAYING A DISTURBANCE COMING ACROSS KY/TN LATE
IN THE DAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING INTO RELATIVELY DRY AIR.
THIS DISTURBANCE MAY STAY TO THE WEST AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN
NORTHWESTERLY. IF SHOWERS DO ENTER THE WEST...DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP
THE COVERAGE ISOLATED AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
5H LOW OVER SE CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD DEPARTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
BY LATE MONDAY BUT MAINTAINS MID-LEVEL NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE SFC HIPRES RESIDES ACRS THE MID-ATLANTIC. SHOULD PROVIDE
A WELCOME RESPITE FROM THE VERY WET AND ACTIVE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN WITH
US MUCH OF MAY. WITH NW FLOW ON SUNDAY CANNOT RULE OUT COMPLETELY A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TRW ESP IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS BACK INTO THE L/M 50S SHOULD BE VERY SPARSE COVERAGE.
HIGHS SUNDAY NEAR CLIMO MID-70S NW TO MID-80S SE. SFC HI PRESSURE
MONDAY DRIFTS LOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO
THE S-SW AND SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE PUSHING NORTH INTO THE TN VALLEY
DURING THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY TUE. MONDAY
SHOULD BE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY WITH H85 TEMPS OF 14C-16C
RESULTING IN SFC HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLOW BECOMES ESSENTIALLY ZONAL FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WITH THE MAIN
BELT OF WESTERLIES ALONG THE U.S.- CANADA BORDER. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER MODELS SUGGEST
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH AND BECOME MORE OR LESS
STATIONARY IN THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC BY TUE-WED. EXACTLY
WHERE THIS FRONT SETS UP WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR IN DETERMINING
PRECIPITATION PATTERNS. CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. BY LATE
WEEK...THU-FRI...THE FLOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT WITH A BROAD
TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THOUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WHICH WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE THE IMPETUS TO DRIVE THE FRONT
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK COOL FRONT AND
UPSLOPING IS SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT INFLUENCE OF DOWNSLOPING WILL
MINIMIZE THREAT OF ANY ORGANIZED REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO POINTS MAINLY EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM KLYH
THROUGH KDAN...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL INCLUDE
VCTS/VCSH MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING
TO IFR/MVFR AT TIMES IN PASSING SHOWERS EAST AND AT KBLF LATER
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT UNDER
DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME LATE NIGHT MVFR/IFR IN FOG
POSSIBLE AT THE DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS KLWB BY MORNING OTRW
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COOL FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO UNIVERSAL VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WFO BLACKSBURG MAY RAINFALL IS AT 9.30 INCHES THROUGH MIDNIGHT 5/29
WHICH MAKES THIS ALREADY THE 2ND WETTEST MAY SINCE 1952 (WETTEST IS
9.75 INCHES IN 1971).

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...RCS
CLIMATE...PC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
244 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>034-WVZ042>045-301845-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-
GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
244 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NCZ004>006-VAZ043>046-058-059-301845-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
244 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 315 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

VAZ035-047-301845-
AMHERST-BUCKINGHAM-
244 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 314 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY
STRONG TO SEVERE AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL OR STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

RCS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
346 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     HAIL             2 SW DRY FORK           36.73N 79.44W
05/29/2009  E0.75 INCH       PITTSYLVANIA       VA   PUBLIC

0227 PM     HAIL             KEELING                 36.72N 79.30W
05/29/2009  E0.75 INCH       PITTSYLVANIA       VA   PUBLIC

&&

RSTONEFI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
405 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             DANVILLE CITY           36.58N 79.33W
05/29/2009  E1.75 INCH       PITTSYLVANIA       VA   PUBLIC

            NEAR NATIONAL GUARD ARMORY

&&

TW

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