Severe Thunderstorm Warning 240, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
726 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ATTM...GETTING AREA WIDE SHRA/TSRA WITH BACKSIDE OF SHORTWAVE NOW
OVER FAR SW VA. LATEST GFS/NAM SHOWING AREA OF PRECIP MOVING
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL
OUT EAST WITH GRADUAL DECREASING POPS IN THE WEST UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
HAVE RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES WORDED. THE AIRMASS OVER THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA IS UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST SO THE THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT
GOES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SURFACE AND
850 MB COLD FRONT EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BY 18Z THURSDAY.

SOME OF DRIER AIR EVEN STARTS WORKING IN TO THE NORTHWEST COUNTY
WARNING AREA THURSDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ADDED EARLY
THURSDAY BUT UNTIL THEN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS
MOVES JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER WEST
VIRGINIA AT 12Z FRIDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHTLY COOLER 850 MB
TEMPERATURES...IN THE +12 TO +14 RANGE...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE BACK DOWN IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF AN MCS TYPE SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTHEAST
DOWN THE WARM FRONT. EVEN IF WHATEVER SYSTEM DEVELOPS OR TRACKS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIFT
OVER THE WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVES WELL EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY BASED ON THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE. MOST ENSEMBLE DATA AS
WELL AS THE CANADIAN AND GEFS HAVE TEMPERATURES AROUND +20 ON
SUNDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN BY TUESDAY. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS
AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH BEGINS
TO BRING BACK MOISTURE AND LIFT. THE CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE EAST TOWARD DAN/LYH. LOOKING AT AVIATION CONCERNS TO
CENTER AROUND REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH LIGHTER
SHOWERS EARLY IN BLF/LWB. LOOK FOR CIGS/VSBYS TO ACTUALLY DROP IN
BLF/LWB WHEN THE RAIN LIGHTENS UP WITH WEAK WNW FLOW.

THE CONVECTION IN THE EAST SHOULD DWINDLE AS FAR AS THUNDER
CHANCES GO OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ONCE THAT OCCURS LOOK FOR CIGS
TO GO VFR FOR A BIT...THEN DROP BACK INTO MVFR AROUND 09Z...WITH
SOME FOG RESTRICTIONS IN MVFR/IFR RANGE.

LEWISBURG WILL DROP TO LIFR TONIGHT AROUND 05Z-07Z.

ALL SITES WILL RISE TO VFR AFTER 14-15Z THURSDAY AS FRONT SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD FROM THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY... COLD FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE REGION THRU LATE IN THE WEEK SUPPORTING
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. FRONT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY RETREAT NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND WITH REGION
REMAINING IN A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS SUPPORTING SCT...MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVE CONVECTION. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED IN LATE
NIGHT/MORNING FOG IN PREFERRED RIVER AND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/JJ/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/WP

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
733 PM EDT WED AUG 05 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CHILHOWIE               36.80N 81.68W
08/05/2009                   SMYTH              VA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            INTERSECTION OF SUGAR STREET AND REDSTONE ROAD REMAINS
            FLOODED WITH OVER 6 INCHES OF RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER. CAR
            STRANDED. MANY ROADS IN AND AROUND TOWN IMPASSABLE.

&&

WERT

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
738 PM EDT WED AUG 05 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N HALIFAX             36.82N 78.93W
08/05/2009                   HALIFAX            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            50 FOOT MAPLE TREE SNAPPED OFF AND DOWN ON US 501
            BLOCKING THE ROAD

&&

JJACKSON

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