Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
411 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE NEW ENGLAND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND
WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL BE CENTERED
OVER WEST VIRGINIA FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE
AIRMASS OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IS UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST SO
THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT GOES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS THE SURFACE AND 850 MB COLD FRONT EAST OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY 18Z THURSDAY.

SOME OF DRIER AIR EVEN STARTS WORKING IN TO THE NORTHWEST COUNTY
WARNING AREA THURSDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ADDED EARLY
THURSDAY BUT UNTIL THEN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS
MOVES JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER WEST
VIRGINIA AT 12Z FRIDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHTLY COOLER 850 MB
TEMPERATURES...IN THE +12 TO +14 RANGE...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE BACK DOWN IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF AN MCS TYPE SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTHEAST
DOWN THE WARM FRONT. EVEN IF WHATEVER SYSTEM DEVELOPS OR TRACKS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIFT
OVER THE WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVES WELL EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY BASED ON THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE. MOST ENSEMBLE DATA AS
WELL AS THE CANADIAN AND GEFS HAVE TEMPERATURES AROUND +20 ON
SUNDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN BY TUESDAY. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS
AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH BEGINS
TO BRING BACK MOISTURE AND LIFT. THE CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE RNK
CWA. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW VA AND ESPECIALLY NC. EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BETWEEN 17 AND 19Z AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED AND AS THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER E KY MOVES E AND
PROVIDES FORCING FOR ASCENT. MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN IN MOST SPOTS BUT CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE REDUCED VSBYS
AND CIGS.

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR AWHILE TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT
LAGGING TO THE NW THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AXIS REMAINING NEAR THE SPINE F THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
CONVECTION MAY ARRIVE IN SEVERAL WAVES UNTIL UPPER TROF SLIPS E OF
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME MVFR FOG EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT TOWARD
DAYBREAK IN PREFERRED LOCATIONS BUT PROXIMITY TO FRONT AND FAIRLY
DECENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT ITS MAGNITUDE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED E OF THE MTNS TOWARD THE END OF
THIS TAF PERIOD ON THURS AFTN.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD FROM THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY...
COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE REGION THRU LATE IN THE WEEK SUPPORTING
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. FRONT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY RETREAT NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND WITH REGION
REMAINING IN A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS SUPPORTING SCT...MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVE CONVECTION. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED IN LATE
NIGHT/MORNING FOG IN PREFERRED RIVER AND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/JJ
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/JB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
444 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ009>018-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-WVZ044-
062045-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-
FLOYD-CRAIG-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-
AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-
CHARLOTTE-MONROE-
444 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING. SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO SEND REPORTS TO OUR OFFICE.

VAZ007-019-020-WVZ042-043-045-062045-
TAZEWELL-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-GREENBRIER-
444 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
536 PM EDT WED AUG 05 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S BENT MOUNTAIN       37.10N 80.12W
08/05/2009                   FLOYD              VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE REPORTED DOWN AT MILE MARKER 140 ON THE BLUE RIDGE
            PARKWAY.

&&

CHENARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
556 PM EDT WED AUG 05 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BLACKSBURG              37.23N 80.42W
08/05/2009                   MONTGOMERY         VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN ON ELLETT ROAD

&&

WERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
601 PM EDT WED AUG 05 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNE NORTH WILKESBORO  36.22N 81.11W
08/05/2009                   WILKES             NC   PUBLIC

            80 FOOT TREE UPROOTED AND DOWN ACROSS DRIVEWAY NEAR
            AIRPORT RD

&&

JJACKSON

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
609 PM EDT WED AUG 05 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             2 S SWANSONVILLE        36.70N 79.58W
08/05/2009  E0.75 INCH       PITTSYLVANIA       VA   PUBLIC

&&

WERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
610 PM EDT WED AUG 05 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 ENE BLACKSBURG        37.26N 80.34W
08/05/2009                   MONTGOMERY         VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED THAT PORTIONS OF CATAWBA ROAD ARE UNDER
            4-6 INCHES OF WATER.

&&

CHENARD