Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1001 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG THE WILL REMAIN IN THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND TOMORROW. A STATIONARY FRONT
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...BEFORE
WASHING OUT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF CWA
EXCLUDING NORTHWEST PORTION. THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL
RATES OF ONE TO THREE INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE AND MAY RESULT
IN FLASH FLOODING. INCREASED POPS...CLOUDS AND RAINFALL QPF FOR
TODAY.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

00Z SOUNDINGS STARTED OUT WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR AT MID
LEVELS. BUT EVEN THOUGH BUFKIT IS SHOWING THE AIRMASS SHOULD NOT BE
SATURATED YET...OBVIOUSLY THE COLUMN HAS MOISTENED ENOUGH FOR
SHOWERS. MSAS ANALYSIS IS SHOWING LIFTED INDEX VALUES INCREASING
OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AND TO THE WEST...BUT STILL HAS
AN AXIS OF MORE UNSTABLE AIR INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION IN THAT REGION TO HOLD TOGETHER WELL
THROUGH BUCKINGHAM COUNTY.

CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.
HAVE EXPANDED THE CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH OF THE PRECIPITATION
THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG SHORT WAVE HAS DUG INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND IS ROUNDING
THE BASED OF THE DEEP TROF AT 06Z. MODELS HAVE THE SHORT WAVE
SLIGHTLY FILLING AND MOVING NORTHEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE FALLS AT THE SURFACE DESPITE THE BAROCLINIC
LEAF SEEN DEVELOPING ON THE SATELLITE LOOPS. BUT COASTAL TROF
SHARPENS DURING THAT TIME FRAME AND WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW
YORK AND PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD...FAIRLY STRONG
INSITU/CLASSIC TYPE WEDGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL FORM AND HOLD
THROUGH TONIGHT. BY 12Z TUESDAY THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
BEST INFLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA BUT BEFORE THEN RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 18Z TODAY
AND 06Z TONIGHT...WILL BE ENHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WILL BE INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL BE LOWERING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TODAY...CLOSER TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MAV GUIDANCE. LITTLE ADJUSTMENT
PLANNED FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

EASTERLY FLOW PROVIDING LLVL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT...THANKS TO THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE
OHIO VALLEY...TO PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TUESDAY. AS A
THUMB RIDGE BUILDS INTO SE CANADA...THIS FEATURE WILL BE GONE BY
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULTING WAA ALOFT/SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY KEEP
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY LESS THAN THE MONDAY/TUESDAY
TIME FRAME...BUT THE CHC OF SHWS AND A FEW STORMS REMAINS.
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ALLOWS MORE
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS LAST WEEK WERE TRYING TO EDGE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT APPEARS NOW...THAT
THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE MID WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA
TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. A WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS BACK INTO THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER INSITU WEDGE COULD FORM OVER THE AREA WITH A
SECONDARY LOW FORMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST USA LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
WILL KEEP THE AREA WET/DAMP INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A FRONT MOVING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY MAY KICK THIS LIGHT PRECIP TO THE
EAST...THEN IT IS BACK TO A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.
UNTIL THEN...EXPECTED TEMPERATURES TO RUN 5-10F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTH THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA
AND VIRGINIA ON THE EAST SIDE OF A DEEP UPPER TROF. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES AND EASTERLY FLOW DEEPENS.

HAVE GRADUALLY LOWERED CEILINGS TO MVFR OR IFR...ESPECIALLY AFTER
00Z TONIGHT. WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ONCE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES GO DOWN.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...SO EXPECT A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS EVERYDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ010>020-022>024-
     032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KM/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...AMS/KM
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/WP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1022 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

NCZ001>004-018>020-VAZ013>017-022>024-032>035-043-211430-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-PULASKI-
MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-
1022 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED. THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY FLOODING WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ007-009-WVZ042>045-211430-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
1022 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ010>012-018>020-211430-
BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-
1022 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ005-006-VAZ044>047-058-059-211430-
ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
1022 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
752 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SW ROANOKE            37.25N 80.01W
07/20/2009                   ROANOKE            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED CREEK OUT OF ITS BANK ON MUDLICK ROAD
            COVERING ONE LANE OF TRAFFIC.

0715 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 ESE ROANOKE MOUNTAIN  37.20N 79.88W
07/20/2009                   FRANKLIN           VA   AIRPLANE PILOT

            SPOTTER REPORTED 2-3 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING OVER ROUTE
            116 ON THE ROANOKE AND FRANKLIN COUNTY BORDER. ALSO
            REPORTED MUD FLOWING OVER ROAD IN AREAS.

&&

MC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
824 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

VAZ023-034-201315-
BEDFORD VA-BOTETOURT VA-
824 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BEDFORD...BOTETOURT AND CITY OF
BEDFORD COUNTIES...

AT 821 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST
OF MONETA...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR D-DAY MEMORIAL AROUND 850 AM...THAXTON AROUND
855 AM AND PEAKS OF OTTER SUMMIT AROUND 915 AM.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR LATER
UPDATES OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 3757 7956 3754 7951 3754 7949 3757 7945
      3756 7938 3714 7946 3715 7967 3716 7969
      3758 7972

EXPERIMENTAL

KK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
904 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

NCZ003-004-020-201400-
STOKES NC-SURRY NC-YADKIN NC-
904 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT STOKES...SURRY AND YADKIN
COUNTIES...

AT 903 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST
OF BOONVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR FAIRVIEW AROUND 910 AM...SILOAM AROUND 920
AM...DOBSON AROUND 925 AM...LEVEL CROSS AROUND 930 AM...ARARAT AROUND
955 AM AND WESTFIELD AROUND 1000 AM.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR LATER
UPDATES OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 3617 8064 3626 8083 3656 8064 3655 8048
      3647 8033

EXPERIMENTAL

KK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
938 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

VAZ024-034-035-201445-
AMHERST VA-BEDFORD VA-ROCKBRIDGE VA-
938 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AMHERST...BEDFORD...CITY OF
BUENA VISTA...CITY OF LEXINGTON AND ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES...

AT 938 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BIG ISLAND...
MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR BIG ISLAND AROUND 945 AM...NAOLA AROUND 950
AM...SNOWDEN AROUND 1000 AM...GLASGOW AROUND 1005 AM...PLEASANT VIEW
AROUND 1015 AM...BUENA VISTA CITY AND AND FORKS OF BUFFALO AROUND
1035 AM.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR LATER
UPDATES OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 3783 7915 3780 7916 3780 7913 3779 7912
      3741 7935 3747 7956 3750 7955 3750 7953
      3753 7950 3756 7953 3791 7943

EXPERIMENTAL

KK

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