Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1033 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING
ALONG THE COAST INTO SUNDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD WORK
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE ALONG
THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO RETURN INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STARTS TO SHIFT WESTWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING IN THE EAST. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 592 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5PM.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE GOING FORECAST INTO TONIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROF TO THE WEST AMPLIFIES PUSHING THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA BY TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN QUESTION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SINCE STARTING OUT
WITH A LOT OF MID DECK...WHILE IR PICS INDICATE CLOUDS WITH THE
FRONT NOT TOO FAR AWAY AS WELL. LATEST MODELS A BIT WEAKER AND
FARTHER EAST WITH WAVE ALONG THE FRONT LATER ON AS WILL HAVE ONE
S/W EXITING NORTH THIS MORNING AND A COUPLE OTHERS DIGGING TOWARD
THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. APPEARS COMBO OF THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH
INCREASING JET ALOFT AND RH TRANSPORT ENOUGH TO STILL WARRANT
DECENT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY DESPITE MORE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. IN ADDITION MOST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
LOCAL WRF HAS BEEN OVERDONE WITH SHRA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND NOW HAVE THE BEST UPPER DIFFLUENCE SWINGING
FARTHER NORTH OVER THE 85H THETA-E AXIS. THEREFORE THINK COVERAGE
WILL BE LESS OVER THE WEST THIS MORNING...WITH DYNAMICS LEADING TO
SHRA ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST
TO THE PIEDMONT LEE TROF THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE THE EASTERN AREAS
LOOK TO HAVE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL SPEED UP LIKELY
POPS THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND DRY SLOT THINGS OVER THE WEST A BIT
SOONER. GIVEN THE ENTIRE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR PER SWODY1
WILL BEEF UP IN THE HWO ESPCLY GIVEN THE LATEST LOCAL WRF QUITE
BULLISH NATURE IN REGARDS TO STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. OTRW LOWERED HIGHS SOME GIVEN THE CLOUDY ONSET AND
QUICKER ARRIVAL OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.

FRONT EXITS A BIT FASTER THIS EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING POPS
SHUTTING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE NW WHERE A FEW
UPSLOPE SHRA MAY HANG ON. EXPECT DRY SLOT AND DOWNSLOPING TO EVEN
BRING SOME CLEARING LATE TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE FAR WEST AS SURGE OF
85H COOL/DRY ADVECTION WORKS OFF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MORNING. THUS
BUMPED LOWS DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN MOST SPOTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT EASTERN TROUGH THIS SPRING/SUMMER HAS PRODUCED A
SIMILAR STRING OF EVENTS THE PAST COUPLE MONTHS ACROSS THE
CWA...WHICH WILL PLAY OUT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FIRST...DEEP
TROUGH SLOWLY WEAKENS AS THE MAIN CLOSED H5 LOW LEAVES THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH SURFACE LOW ALSO MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
FRIDAYS PRECIP LEAVES LLVL MOISTURE WHICH IS CONVERTED INTO A
STRATOCU FIELD UNDERNEATH A STRONG INVERSION AFTER THE COLD FRONT
HAS PASSED ON SATURDAY. CLDS HANGING ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY
MOST OF SATURDAY MAY KEEP THEM PINNED BELOW 70F FOR HIGHS. EXPECTING
CLDS TO BUBBLE UP IN THE DESTRUCTIVE SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
MORNING AIDED BY ANOTHER SHRTWV ARRIVING SAT PM. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TO EXPAND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH MAINLY SE WEST VA AND
EXTREME WESTERN VA. AS UPPER HIGHS ALONG THE WESTERN/EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH TRY TO PINCH OFF ITS SOUTHERN HALF...THE
RESULTING SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST PRODUCES DEEP SE
TO E FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GOOD CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
APP/BLUE RIDGE MTNS AS THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE SW CONUS TRIES TO
EXPAND EAST. THUS...DID INC POPS ON MONDAY AND REDUCE MAX T.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER TEMPS HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE/END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD. OVERALL...WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID NEXT WEEK. THE BETTER CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS THRU WED WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WITH THE LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. BY THURSDAY...WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA...THE BETTER CHC FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD SHIFT MORE TO THE MTNS.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY
WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE HUMID THOUGH...AND
WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN SITES THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND LOWER CIGS THRU AT LEAST MID
MORNING AT KBLF/KLWB. SOME OF THIS MAY SPREAD EAST TOWARD ROA
BEFORE WEAKENING SO WILL INCLUDE A SHRA MENTION THERE THIS
MORNING. EXPECT EASTERN SITES TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR UNTIL MIDDAY
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN FOG IN SPOTS THRU 14Z.

WITH A SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AGAIN. DEEPER CONVECTION
IS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
STORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH TURBULENCE AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL SHOWERS EXIT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. SINCE
DEGREE OF COVERAGE OUT EAST A LITTLE TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ONLY INCLUDE PREVAILING MVFR OVER THE WEST IN CONVECTION AND
CONTINUE THE VCTS/CB MENTION IN THE EAST.

DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY
BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SITES WHERE MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT. LOWER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COULD RETURN AGAIN
FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK ESPCLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES AS MOISTURE
BACKS INLAND FROM THE RESIDUAL FRONT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH/JJ
NEAR TERM...JH/RCS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JH/PM/RCS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1038 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2009

NCZ004>006-VAZ035-043>047-058-059-181445-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
1038 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 592 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CONTAINING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES THIS
AFTERNOON.

NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>034-WVZ042>045-181445-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-
GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
1038 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1116 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1102 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE HURT               37.09N 79.27W
07/17/2009                   PITTSYLVANIA       VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES BLOWN DOWN ON PROSPECT RD

1102 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HURT                    37.08N 79.28W
07/17/2009                   PITTSYLVANIA       VA   PUBLIC

            TELEPHONE POLE BLOWN DOWN

&&

DOC

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