Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
511 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY SINKS SOUTH ACROSS OUR
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WW379 EXPANDED NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE MUCH OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
WEST OF LYNCHBURG...AND SOUTHEAST WVA.

AWAITING THE ARRIVAL OF SQUALL LINE WHICH HAS PRODUCED SVR WX
THROUGH TN EARLIER TODAY. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS HAS 0-6KM SHR NEAR
50M/S...WHICH ALONG WITH THE SUNSHINE POPPING OUT SHOULD SUSTAIN
THE LINE AND STORMS OUT AHEAD OF IT THIS EVENING. ACTUAL COLD
FRONT...WHICH HAS BEEN SITTING IN THE OHIO VALLEY FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...ALLOWING SHWS AND POSSIBLY A
TSTORM TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EXTREME NW LATE TONIGHT. SOME CLEARING
WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM...POSSIBLY DENSE AGAIN IN SPOTS. WATER
REMAINS A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY WHEN SHOWERS OR STORMS SLOWS DOWN
ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND PIEDMONT AS THEY OUTRUNS THEIR
SUPPORT. VERY LOW FF GUIDANCE THERE AND IN THE AFFECTED ROCKINGHAM
BASIN LAST NIGHT MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WITH SVR
STORMS TONIGHT...BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE DMGG WINDS. BOUNDARY SLOWS
OVER THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY...AND WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING AN AREA OF RAIN MAY DEVELOP IN THE EXTREME SW PER
GFS. THE NAM WAS MUCH DRIER...BUT DID INC POPS IN THOSE PARTS TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. IF FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS
DEFORMATION ZONE THEN POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED TOMORROW.
WITH A DOWNSLOPING FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY...SHWS
MAY ONLY BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. MORE SHWS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PIEDMONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH LEE
TROUGH AND HUNG BOUNDARY THROUGH CENTRAL VA...SOME OF THESE COULD
BE STRONG IN THE FVX/DAN CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THIS WEEKEND...FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE...A
SLIGHT WNW-ESE ORIENTATION OF THE HEIGHT FIELD EXHIBITED BY THE
MODELS...BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION. SURFACE FRONT IS
FCST TO OOZE SOUTHWARD BUT WITH NO REAL PRONOUNCED DRYING OR
LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS SINCE THE FRONTAL ZONE IS PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. AS SUCH...THINK MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER. NO PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE SHORT WAVES ARE
FORECAST...SO PRECIP THREAT AND CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS PRETTY
LOW. ATTM WILL KEEP POPS AOB 50 AND TIED MAINLY TO THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE WHERE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN
CONTRIBUTER TO ANYTHING THAT GETS INITIATED.

HAVE FAVORED TEMPERATURES IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MAV MOS NUMBERS
BUT CORRECTED FOR BIASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INSIST ON GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND WHICH WOULD THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...A RESULT THAT WOULD PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PER HPC GUIDANCE HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHC THREAT OF DIURNAL CYCLE
SHOWERS...BUT LEFT THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS DRY. WENT WITH THE MEX
MOS TEMPS BIAS CORRECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN
VARIABLE CIGS AND VSBYS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...REMNANT MOISTURE
RESULTING IN FOG AND STRATUS...CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY...SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE WITH PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
SOME LOW CLDS AND VSBYS DUE TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AND AREAS OF
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS.

A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KM/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
523 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

VAZ007-010-011-013-014-017>019-022-023-WVZ042>045-122130-
TAZEWELL-BLAND-GILES-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-
ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
523 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 379 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORMING THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. SOME FLASH FLOODING
MAY OCCUR UNDERNEATH THE STRONGEST CELLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY MORNING MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ009-012-015-016-122130-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-SMYTH-WYTHE-GRAYSON-CARROLL-
523 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 379 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORMING THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...THE
STORMS WILL BE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032-043-044-122130-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-PATRICK-HENRY-
PITTSYLVANIA-
523 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 379 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORMING THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...THE
STORMS WILL BE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON MAY
AGAIN BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ045>047-058-059-122130-
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
523 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...THE
STORMS WILL BE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON MAY
AGAIN BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ033-034-122130-
FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-
523 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 379 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...THE
STORMS WILL BE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON MAY
AGAIN BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ020-024-035-122130-
BATH-ROCKBRIDGE-AMHERST-
523 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. SOME FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR
UNDERNEATH THE STRONGEST CELLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY MORNING MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
639 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MAX MEADOWS             36.97N 80.93W
06/11/2009                   WYTHE              VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN

&&

HYSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
641 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WNW MAX MEADOWS       36.97N 80.95W
06/11/2009                   WYTHE              VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WYTHE COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTED 7 TO 10 INCHES OF WATER
            FLOWING OVER PEPPERS FERRY ROAD.

&&

HYSELL

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