Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
227 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE EAST ALONG THE
FRONT. ONE FINAL STRONG DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHRTWV IN CENTRAL KY DIVING SSE...AND WAS COUNTING ON THIS
FEATURE TO GIVE PARCELS A NUDGE LATE THIS AM. CURRENT RUC13
AMPLIFIES ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AT ABOUT LWB LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE MAY BE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED...THERES JUST
TOO MUCH INSTABILITY RIGHT NOW TO FINE TUNE POPS FOR ONE
PARTICULAR AREA...AND EVEN WEAK VORT MAXES CAN PROVIDE THE MATCH
WHICH MAY ALLOW STORMS TO BLOSSOM.

LATER TONIGHT...ALL LOCAL WRF MODELS POINTING TO AN MCS DEVELOPING
IN CENTRAL VA...THEN DIVING SOUTH INTO NC. AN ABNORMAL STORM TRACK
BUT CORFIDI VECTORS VERIFY IT. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS
COMPLEX DEVELOPS...AS WRNGS WOULD PROBABLY FOLLOW IT.

PREV DISC...
WEAK SHORT WAVE HAS GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...MAINLY IN THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE
ENOUGH THAT THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE GENERATING THE SCT
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE EXTREME NRN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA. ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES...LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE WE GET UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR MORE CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. THERE AREA TWO FEATURES THAT MAY HELP FOCUS TSTM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ONE IS THE FAIRLY WEAK WEST TO
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE MTNS- THIS WOULD BRING THE BEST
CHC FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN SLOPES...AND ALSO A
STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS BECAUSE OF THE LOW LEVEL WEST FLOW.
THIS TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR TSTMS TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES...I HAVE
KEPT POPS CHC...THOUGH HAVE HIGH CHC IN THE FAR WEST...AND ALSO IN
THE EAST NEAR WHERE THE LEE TROUGH WOULD BE. CONVECTION WOULD
STILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL...AS THERE IS NO STRONG UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE TO KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED
ENOUGH THAT THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY...SO A FEW STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR HAIL OR STRONG WINDS. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY TODAY- KEPT HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS...AND THEN WILL
BE A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 60S.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A
STRONGER WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARD WED EVENING.
WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE MTNS...STILL JUST HIGH CHC AT
THIS POINT WITH SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE WAVE. WE
WILL STILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND THE SHEAR WILL BE
INCREASING WITH THE FRONT GETTING CLOSER...SO STORMS MAY BE MORE
ORGANIZED BY WED AFT/EVE WITH MORE OF A SEVERE THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLOW REMAINS ZONAL WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHING
THE MODEST MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW.  IF MODEL TIMING IS CORRECT A
STRONG WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY TRAVERSING THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL ENERGY ARRIVING
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY...THE LATTER WAVE HELPING TO KICK NEARLY
STATIONARY SFC FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE FCST AREA.

MODEL PROGS SUGGEST STRONG NOCTURNAL JET TO SET UP FROM TENNESSEE
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AS SUCH...THINK
OPPORTUNITY WILL EXISTS FOR MCS TO TRAVERSE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY CONTINUATION OF ACTIVITY THURSDAY AS COMBINATION OF
OUTFLOWS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGIN TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SEEM INEVITABLE GIVEN
COMBINATION OF PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND LIFTING MECHANISMS. IN
ADDITION TO POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED.

UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...WHICH MAY TAKE UNTIL
FRIDAY...THE AIRMASS OVER OUR FCST AREA WILL REMAIN WARM AND
HUMID...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY JUST ENOUGH TO NUDGE SURFACE FRONT
TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH. BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF TAKE THE FRONT DOWN TO ABOUT ATLANTA...BUT NEITHER
MODEL COMPLETELY RID CWA OF CLOUD COVER OR PRECIP THREAT. FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHC SHRA/TSRA...BUT MAINLY DIURNAL IN
NATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STORM STARTING TO FIRE THIS PM SW OF KBLF AND WEST OF KLWB. ATMS
IS UNSTABLE AND THESE STORMS ALONG WITH THEIR OUTFLOW WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF ENERGY TO WORK WITH. HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS TREND OF CB
AND VCTS...AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF OR WHEN KLWB/KBLF
WILL TAKE A DIRECT HIT. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES THIS PM. MORE SHWS
TODAY AND LESS CLDS TONIGHT COULD SEND LWB/LYH/DAN INTO IFR VIS
TONIGHT. IF CLDS FROM CONVECTION OUT WEST HOLD OFF LONG
ENOUGH...SEVERAL HRS OF LIFR VIS MAY OCCUR AT LWB. LOCAL WRF
MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY FOR TSTORM COMPLEX TO
DEVELOP ALONG CENTRAL VA MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. THIS
COULD AFFECT LYH/DAN...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR NOW. STORMS
ONCE AGAIN MAY ARRIVE AT LWB/BLF NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
A STRONGER SHRTWV AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HIT THE OHIO VALLEY.

WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
INCREASE...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR COULD OCCUR IN PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS.

SOME LOW CLDS AND VIS IS POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEKEND
AS A NORTHERLY COMPONENT DEVELOPS BEHIND A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY
OVER THE VA/NC BORDER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJ
NEAR TERM...JJ/KM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JJ/KM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
529 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2009

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-100930-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
529 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. A FEW OF THEM COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. IN ADDITION...SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. IN ADDITION...TRAINING OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
225 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2009

VAZ032-091900-
PATRICK VA-
225 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
PATRICK COUNTY...

AT 225 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER STUART...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR STUART AROUND 240 PM AND CRITZ AROUND 300 PM.

LAT...LON 3655 8007 3655 8029 3666 8040 3679 8024
      3672 8008 3668 8007 3666 8005 3662 8004
      3657 8005 3654 8006

EXPERIMENTAL

RCS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
250 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2009

NCZ002-VAZ015-091930-
ALLEGHANY NC-GRAYSON VA-
250 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN ALLEGHANY AND SOUTHERN
GRAYSON COUNTIES...

AT 248 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER MOUTH OF
WILSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR PINEY CREEK AROUND 310 PM AND SCOTTVILLE
AROUND 330 PM.

LAT...LON 3638 8122 3655 8135 3661 8134 3660 8106

EXPERIMENTAL

RCS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
308 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2009

VAZ016-091945-
CARROLL VA-
308 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARROLL
COUNTY...

AT 307 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHWEST
OF HILLSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR SYLVATUS AROUND 335 PM AND GALAX HILLSVILLE
AIRPORT AROUND 345 PM.

LAT...LON 3682 8098 3685 8085 3685 8081 3687 8078
      3687 8077 3677 8063 3667 8085

EXPERIMENTAL

RCS