River Flood Warning 14, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
617 AM EST THU NOV 12 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING A FLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION ON GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONCE A HURRICANE...IDA WILL TRANSFORM INTO A MATURE NOREASTER OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST BY TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL HOVER
OVER THE OUTER BANKS WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN. ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
AREA DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS PIVOTS EAST
AND INTO THE PIEDMONT. WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES...SOME 5 TO 6 INCH
REPORTS...OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS...WILL KEEP THE
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS AN ISO-THERMAL LAYER
AROUND 3-4KFT...WHICH IS MAKING THE RADAR RUN HOT AND OVER
ESTIMATE RAINFALL TOTALS. THE RADAR WILL SHOW THE AREA OF HEAVIEST
RADAR THROUGH THE DAY...BUT BRIGHT BANDING MAY PAINT A MORE
OMINOUS PICTURE THAN WHAT IS OCCURRING.

MODELS ALSO KEEPING STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...60-70 KNOTS...OVER THE
COASTAL PIEDMONT OF NC/VA. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL NOT TOTALLY MIX
TO THE GROUND. HOWEVER...WITH SATURATED GROUND...REPORTS OF 40 MPH
WINDS HAVE BEEN UPROOTING TREES. RNK WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DESPITE WIND SPEEDS BEING BELOW
CRITERIA.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.
COUPLE THIS COOLER AIR WITH RAIN...AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM TO
MUCH THROUGH THE DAY. SOME AREAS WILL BE LUCKY TO REACH 50F...SOME
HIGHER ELEVATION MAY STAY IN THE 30S. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FILLS SLIGHTLY AND DRIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS START RISING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND BY SATURDAY MORNING AREA IS UNDER
THE RIDGE AXIS. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ENDING TIME OF THE RAIN AND THE
CLEARING BY 6 TO 12 HOURS. TEMPERATURES MODERATE DURING THE PERIOD
SO HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...LEANED ISC GRIDS TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER SATURDAY...WENT WITH THE
MOSGUIDEBC FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE CLOSING OFF OF THE
SYSTEM ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST SIGNALS A RETURN TO MERIDIONAL
FLOW...WITH THE BASIC SPLIT IN THE REGIME LEADING TO CLOSED VORTICES.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOW THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN STEADY OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AT ROA/LYH/DAN THROUGH THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SPINS OFF THE OUTER BANKS...THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
PIVOT TO THE PIEDMONT. THIS MAY EXTEND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AT LYH
AND DAN THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALSO WITH THE LOW OFF THE
COAST...WINDY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS IS LIKELY AT DAN AND LYH. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO CREATE WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA.

VISIBILITIES WILL PRIMARILY BE MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN HEAVIER
RAIN BANDS. CEILINGS WILL ALSO BOUNCE AROUND THROUGH THE DAY FROM
LOW END VFR TO HIGH END IFR.

NOT VERY MUCH MOVEMENT WITH THE LOW OFF THE COAST AS IT BECOMES
OCCLUDED. ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS LOW MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH TO
THE EAST TO BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS FOR SMALL STREAMS...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS OR STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE SOUTH BOSTON TRANSMITTER IS OFF THE AIR WITH APPARENT PHONE
LINE PROBLEMS. IT IS UNKNOWN WHEN IT WILL BE BACK UP. SOUTH BOSTON
RIVER GAGE IS STUCK AT 18.5 FEET.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ016-017-
     032>035-043>047-058-059.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ032>035-043>047-058-
     059.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ003>006.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/RCS
HYDROLOGY...RCS
EQUIPMENT...RCS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
349 AM EST THU NOV 12 2009

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>015-018>020-022>024-WVZ042>045-130900-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-
MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-
ROCKBRIDGE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
349 AM EST THU NOV 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ016-017-130900-
CARROLL-FLOYD-
349 AM EST THU NOV 12 2009

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ003>006-VAZ032>035-043-045>047-130900-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
HENRY-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
349 AM EST THU NOV 12 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ044-058-059-130900-
PITTSYLVANIA-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
349 AM EST THU NOV 12 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DAN RIVER FROM DANVILLE TO SOUTH
 BOSTON...AND FOR THE ROANOKE RIVER AT RANDOLPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ019-020-130900-
WILKES-YADKIN-
349 AM EST THU NOV 12 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RCS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
442 AM EST THU NOV 12 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NE STEWARTSVILLE        37.27N 79.79W
11/12/2009                   BEDFORD            VA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE DOWN ON JORDONTOWN ROAD

0100 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 S MONTVALE            37.32N 79.72W
11/12/2009                   BEDFORD            VA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE DOWN ON QUARTERWOOD ROAD NEAR SHADY GROVE

0100 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 NE MONETA             37.23N 79.56W
11/12/2009                   BEDFORD            VA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 24

0100 AM     TSTM WND DMG     E MONTVALE              37.38N 79.73W
11/12/2009                   BEDFORD            VA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 460

&&

AMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
711 AM EST THU NOV 12 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 S BETHANY             36.27N 79.84W
11/11/2009                   ROCKINGHAM         NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            *** 1 FATAL *** TREE FELL ON CAR ON WITTY ROAD

&&

AMS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>