Freeze Warning 2, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
339 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MID MORNING...BUT LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

LATEST OBS SHOW THAT THE SFC FNT HAS JUST PASSED THRU THE BLF AND
LWB AREAS. THIS IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FCSTS. MSAS SHOWS THE FNT
BEGINNING TO FOLD OVER INTO MORE OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION AS
THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS THRU EASTERN CANADA ALLOWING THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE NERN U.S. THINK THAT THE FNT WILL TEND
TO HANG UP IN THE MTNS THIS MORNING...BUT COOLER DRIER AIR WILL
SURGE SOUTHWARD EAST OF THE APPLNS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FCST. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FCST IS THAT WATER VAPOR SHOWS PLENTIFUL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NWD THRU THE TN VALLEY...AND THE UPPER
TROUGH STAYS WEST OF THE MTNS UNTIL THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER WEAKER
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVG ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MINN DEEPENS THE
TROUGH. THE END RESULT FOR OUR AREA IS THAT LIGHT POST-FRONTAL
RAIN WILL CONTINUE LONGER- ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY EAST OF THE
MTNS...AND ALL AREAS WILL BE CLOUDY/M CLOUDY ALL DAY. HAVE RAISED
POPS...AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. WILL ACTUALLY BE
STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WHICH IS HARD
TO DO IN MID MAY.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA...AND
SHOULD PUSH THE RAIN EAST OF THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT. MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY HANG ON ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THOUGH...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATION AND KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
INTO THE FROST RANGE. HOWEVER...IN THE SE WV MTNS AND THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF VA...WINDS WILL LIGHTEN ENOUGH AND CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT QUICK ENOUGH THAT TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE
FROST/FREEZE RANGE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WE WILL ISSUE FREEZE WARNINGS
FOR GREENBRIER WV AND BATH VA COUNTIES...AND A FROST ADVISORY FOR
BORDERING COUNTIES OF SUMMERS...MONROE IN WV AND ALLEGHANY VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. WE ARE EXPECTING LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND A TREND FROM
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LATEST
RUN OF THE GFS MODEL DEPICTS MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION MAKING IT
INTO SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. HAVE ELECTED TO NOT PUT ANY WEIGHT INTO THE
PRECIPITATION SOLUTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT.

PATCHY FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE
MONDAY NIGHT IN SIMILAR LOCATIONS AS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS MIDWEEK AND REMAINS INTO FRIDAY. MODELS SUGGEST
UPPER LOW MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST...BUT THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF US AS WE REMAIN PINCHED BETWEEN THIS
SYSTEM AND NRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ENOUGH OF A
PUSH BY A SHORTWAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD MAY SEND A FRONT INTO THE
AREA BY NEXT SATURDAY AND THAT IS OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOVING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST IN EASTERN KY/TN WILL SLOWLY
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
KEEP SHOWERS GOING BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE DAY TODAY. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR TSTMS THRU ABOUT 09Z AT DANVILLE...BUT THE CHC IS
LOW. OVERALL...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
MORNING...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LINGERING THE
LONGEST EAST OF THE MTNS IN THE PIEDMONT- THIS INCLUDES THE LYH AND
DAN TAF SITES. THE OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...SHIFTING FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTH
OR EVEN NORTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND MONDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THAT MTN
VALLEYS COULD HAVE FOG DEVELOP TOWARD MON MORNING. THIS MAY AFFECT
THE LWB TAF SITE. GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ019.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ020.
NC...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ043-044.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJ
NEAR TERM...JJ
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PM/WP
AVIATION...JJ/KK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
422 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>019-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-170830-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
422 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...SO COULD
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
FLOODING. IN ADDITION...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ020-WVZ045-170830-
BATH-GREENBRIER-
422 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...SO COULD
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
FLOODING. IN ADDITION...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED EARLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.