Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Alleghany County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Surry County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Bland County, VA, Carroll County, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Radford, VA, Craig County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Giles County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Wythe County, VA, Mercer County, WV, Monroe County, WV, Summers County, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
105 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH
WILL PRODUCE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD MAKE A RETURN BEHIND A PASSING COLD
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. 1 HR FFG FOR THIS REGION IS
BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 IN/HR. TROPICAL AIR MASS PATTERN THE AREA
REMAINS IT IS QUITE CAPABLE OF THIS INTENSITY...AND AS THE
AFTERNOON DEVELOPS...THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
AND OR STORMS LOOKS LIKELY. AM WATCHING AREA TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
SC DEVELOP ALONG A N-S ORIENTATION. EXPECT THIS PRECIPITATION TO
HOLD TOGETHER AS IT PROGRESSES IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM. AHEAD OF THIS AREA
OF CONVECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL HELP
TO PRIME THE AREA FOR WHAT WILL ARRIVE AFTER 4 PM. WATCH WILL
EXTEND NORTH INTO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY OF SE WV...MINUS TAZEWELL
AND SMYTH COUNTIES OF SW VA. THESE LOCATIONS HAVE MISSED THE BRUNT
OF RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND ARE ABLE TO TAKE MORE WATER.

TRAJECTORIES FINALLY TURN MORE SW ALOFT OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
THE UPSTREAM 5H TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BE
NEARING THE OHIO RIVER BY THU MORNING. GUIDANCE KEEPS WHATS LEFT
OF SHRA AXIS OVER THE WEST DURING THE EVENING THEN FADES IT
OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND LACK OF S/SE FLOW THATS BEEN
KEEPING LATE NIGHT BANDING GOING. HOWEVER LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND STILL VERY MOIST PWATS IN PLACE TO LINGER SOME
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHEST IN THE EVENING MAINLY WEST/SW
CORRIDOR. TRIMMED LOWS DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT MAINLY LOW/MID 60S FOR
NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT NIGHT WILL BEGIN A WEATHER TRANSITION
PERIOD WITH AN INCOMING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL EITHER BE WITH THE REMNANT TROPICAL LOW ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND/OR OFF THE VA/NC COAST WITH THE COASTAL
LOW...AND/OR ALONG THE GULF WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT.

A LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL TRAVEL
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SPS HAS PLACES A SLIGHT RISK TO OUR WEST ACROSS SE KY TO
SRN ALABAMA. ATTM FOR US WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE MAIN THREAT
IS HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZE FLOODING. LOOKS LIKE BEST INSTABILITY AND
DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST.

ON THURSDAY PLAYED TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MAV GUID. HIGHS WILL VARIED
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH
READINGS FROM AROUND 60 TO THE UPPER 60S.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE DEPENDANT
ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY DRIFTS. THE WAVE ALONG THE GULF MAY
SLOW THE FRONTS SOUTHERN PROGRESSION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT...ELECTED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WENT
WITH ADJMAVBC GUID FOR HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE DEPENDANT
ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY DRIFTS. THE WAVE ALONG THE GULF WILL
LIKELY SLOW THE FRONTS SOUTHERN PROGRESSION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF THE NC COAST...COOLER DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAILS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE
MONDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY STORMS ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND
ON HOW QUICKLY THE AREA WILL BECOME SATURATED. IF SATURATION IS
GOOD ENOUGH...SCATTERED PULSE STORM ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND NORMAL. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST THIS
MORNING WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WEST. WEAK BOUNDARY SINKING
SOUTH TOWARD KLYH WILL LIKELY KEEP POOR CONDITIONS IN PLACE EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE GIVEN E/NE FLOW THIS MORNING BEFORE THINGS MIX
OUT THIS AFTERNOON. FEW SHRA MAY ALSO AFFECT ALL SITES THRU ABOUT
MIDDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER CONVECTION OVER MAINLY THE SE WVA
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MOST LOCATIONS TO IMPROVE TO A MIX
OF VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW SLOWLY VEERS TO THE SOUTH WITH
CU CIGS FILLING IN WHERE BREAKS DO DEVELOP. HOWEVER MAY BE LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE KLYH REACHES HIGH END MVFR. LEFT IN SHRA
WITH CB MENTION IN THE WEST AND SOUTH WHERE BUFKIT/MODELS SHOW
BEST INSTABILITY WITH WEAK IMPULSE PASSING THRU ALTHO EXACT
TIMING IFFY.

CONVECTION SHOULD FADE A BIT FASTER OVERNIGHT LEAVING LIGHT WINDS
AND MORE LOW CLOUDS/FOG AROUND LATER TONIGHT. SINCE THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE TURNING MORE WESTERLY WONT GO QUITE AS LOW WITH
CIGS/VSBYS AS GUIDANCE BUT COULD BE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR BY
THURSDAY MORNING.

WE WILL REMAIN IN A WET PATTERN INTO FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA. PROLONGED PERIODS OF SUB- VFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED ESPCLY THRU THURSDAY BEFORE SOME DRYING
DEVELOPS BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ010>018-
     032.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>003-
     018>020.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR WVZ042>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH/RCS
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/JJ/WP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
747 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2009

NCZ001-002-018-019-VAZ007-009>020-WVZ042>045-281200-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-WILKES-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-
PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-
MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
747 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE MORE HEAVY RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ003>006-020-VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-281200-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-YADKIN-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
747 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVIER DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.