Flash Flood Warning 97, NWS Blacksburg, VA

000 
WGUS71 KRNK 220436
FFSRNK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1236 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2009

VAC063-121-220930-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0097.000000T0000Z-090822T0930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FLOYD VA-MONTGOMERY VA-
1236 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 AM EDT FOR
SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY AND WESTERN FLOYD COUNTIES...

AT 1233 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE THE 
HEAVIEST RAIN HAS EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THE THREAT OF FLASH 
FLOODING IS NOT OVER THOUGH. RUN OFF FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS 
STILL IS COLLECTING IN STREAMS AND DITCHES. THUS...THE FLASH FLOOD 
WARNING CONTINUES.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PILOT 
...INDIAN VALLEY...ALUM RIDGE...WILLIS AND RINER

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 3690 8060 3691 8060 3698 8049 3709 8039
      3707 8026 3692 8033 3680 8051

$$

DS

000 
WGUS71 KRNK 220636
FFSRNK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
236 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2009

VAC063-121-220643-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FF.W.0097.000000T0000Z-090822T0930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FLOYD VA-MONTGOMERY VA-
236 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY
AND WESTERN FLOYD COUNTIES...

COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORT NO FLOODING PROBLEMS IN THE WARNED 
AREA...THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3690 8060 3691 8060 3698 8049 3709 8039
      3707 8026 3692 8033 3680 8051

$$

DS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
959 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EVENTUALLY SHOVE THE FRONT OFF THE COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARM UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
EXTEND EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DESPITE DECENT SFC INSTABILITY WITH CAPES STILL 2000 J/KG OR MORE
IN THE PIEDMONT...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SEEM TO BE KEEPING
MUCH CONVECTION FROM TAKING OFF. HAVE CANCELLED THE SVR TSTM WATCH
THAT WAS IN EFFECT IN THE PIEDMONT AREAS. HAVE ALSO LOWERED POPS
QUITE A BIT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TO REFLECT MORE OF A WIDELY
SCATTERED COVERAGE. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSER OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPS ALOFT COOL...WE STILL SHOULD SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS RE-DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
00Z RNK AND GSO SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW >1500 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE
WITH THE SFC LAYER STABILIZING A LITTLE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SFC FNT
IS STALLED ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPLNS...AND WATER VAPOR
SHOWS A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BRINGING A PLUME OF MOISTURE NEWD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES.
MEANWHILE THE RUC SHOWS TEMPS ALOFT COOLING RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT. WITH PWATS
STILL 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES...I HAVE KEPT IN A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN
AS WELL. FINALLY...WITH DEWPOINTS RUNNING IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NO DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO REACH THAT
AREA...HAVE RAISED LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN THE EAST.

WITH THE FRONT SLOWING UP IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING SHORT WAVE
AND APPROACH OF H-BILL THINK IT WISE TO HOLD ONTO FAIRLY HIGH POPS
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WE SHOULD STILL BE WARY OF THE HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. IN SPITE OF THE FAST MEAN WIND FLOW...HIGH RAIN RATES IN
COMBINATION WITH ANY TRAINING OR ANCHORING OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
RESULT IN QUICK ACCUMULATIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR RAPID RUNOFF.

TEMPS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY...DEWPOINTS
REMAINING ABOVE 65.

AS HURRICANE BILL MOVES UP THE EAST COAST...LOOK FOR GRADUAL END
TO PRECIP THREAT ONCE THE HURRICANE PULLS NORTH OF 40 DEG
LAT...AND ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO ACCELERATE EAST. ADVECTION OF
DRYER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR INTO THE AREA WILL NOT TAKE PLACE UNTIL
THIS OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HURRICANE BILL WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM REGION. SEE NHC
DISCUSSION AND ADVISORIES FOR MORE INFO. 12Z NAM MATCHED 15Z NHC
TRACK BETTER THAN GFS.

PLAYED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST SATURDAY EVENING...AND TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MET GUID. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH EAST TO THE COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR MOVE INTO
THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE
50S...EXCEPT REMAINING THE LOWER TO MID 60S OUT EAST.

KEPT CHC OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ON SUNDAY AS COOL POOL PUSHES
NEARBY. POSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. PLAYED SUNDAY NIGHT DRY
WITH LOWS NEAR ADJMET. MONDAY...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
EXISTS IN THE MTNS AS SECONDARY TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE GREENBRIER
VALLEY TO THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPCGUIDE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WHICH INCORPORATE A BLEND OF ENS
MEANS OF BOTH GFS AND ECMWF.

BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS EAST TO THE
COAST AHEAD OF A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD SINKING FRONT NEAR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC SHOULD HEAT
UP ONCE AGAIN WITH H85 TEMPS APPROACHING +18C. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN ISOLD TO SCT THROUGH 04Z TO 06Z...THEN
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC FNT APPROACHES. THINK THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
HAVE ENOUGH COVERAGE TO HAVE PREVAILING SHOWERS AND VCNTY TSTMS IN
THE ALL OF THE TAF SITES. THE BULK OF THIS WAVE OF SHOWERS LOOKS
TO BE IN THE 06 TO 12Z TIME FRAME AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
MTNS. IN ADDITION...IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THINK THAT WITH VERY
MOIST LOWER LEVELS...MVFR FOG IS LIKELY...AND POSSIBLY SOME IFR
FOG/STRATUS. THE FNT WILL HANG UP IN THE MTNS AND THEN GETS A GOOD
PUSH SATURDAY WITH A SECOND SHORT WAVE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL RE-
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM ROA
EASTWARD...SO I HAVE INCLUDED CB IN THE CLOUD GROUP FOR ROA...LYH
AND DAN BEGINNING 16 OR 17Z SATURDAY.

THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CROSS THE AREA UNTIL HURRICANE BILL
PASSES NORTH OF 40 DEG LAT LATE SAT AFT OR EVENING. AFTER
THAT...THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO
INFILTRATE THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY
BE EAST OF US SUNDAY.

DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK. ASIDE FROM LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...JJ/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...JJ/PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
656 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-222300-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
656 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RCS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
913 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009

VAZ035-045-046-220215-
AMHERST VA-APPOMATTOX VA-CAMPBELL VA-
913 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN AMHERST...APPOMATTOX AND
NORTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTIES...

AT 911 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST
OF RUSTBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS. EXPECT FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR
SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN
A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR CONCORD AROUND 930 PM...SPOUT SPRING AROUND
935 PM...STONEWALL AROUND 945 PM...APPOMATTOX AROUND 950 PM...
OAKVILLE AROUND 1000 PM AND RIVERVILLE AROUND 1015 PM.

LAT...LON 3718 7903 3731 7924 3757 7895 3756 7889
      3754 7887 3754 7885 3756 7884 3756 7883
      3746 7871 3745 7871

EXPERIMENTAL

RCS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1010 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009

VAZ014-017-220315-
FLOYD VA-MONTGOMERY VA-
1010 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT FLOYD AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

AT 1009 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHEAST
OF INDIAN VALLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR PILOT AROUND 1030 PM...TERRYS FORK AROUND
1045 PM...CROCKETT SPRINGS AROUND 1100 PM AND COPPER HILL AROUND 1115
PM.

LAT...LON 3689 8046 3696 8055 3723 8022 3719 8018
      3712 8018 3711 8015 3713 8014 3712 8012
      3710 8011 3701 8011

EXPERIMENTAL

DS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1031 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009

NCZ003-004-020-220330-
STOKES NC-SURRY NC-YADKIN NC-
1031 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT STOKES...SURRY AND YADKIN
COUNTIES...

AT 1031 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST
OF EAST BEND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR SILOAM AROUND 1045 PM...PILOT MOUNTAIN AROUND
1100 PM...WOODVILLE AROUND 1115 PM AND FRANCISCO AROUND 1130 PM.

LAT...LON 3613 8057 3624 8074 3655 8046 3655 8045
      3642 8022 3625 8043 3625 8045 3624 8044

EXPERIMENTAL

DS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1036 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009

VAZ024-220330-
ROCKBRIDGE VA-
1036 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ROCKBRIDGE COUNTY...

AT 1036 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER LEXINGTON
CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR LEXINGTON CITY AROUND 1045 PM...CORNWALL
AROUND 1100 PM AND FAIRFIELD AROUND 1115 PM.

LAT...LON 3785 7914 3780 7923 3781 7925 3778 7928
      3769 7943 3780 7955 3801 7936

EXPERIMENTAL

DS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1039 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009

VAZ016-220300-
CARROLL VA-
1039 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CARROLL COUNTY...

AT 1038 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF FANCY GAP...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR DUGSPUR AROUND 1045 PM AND LAUREL FORK AROUND
1050 PM.

LAT...LON 3686 8058 3673 8047 3665 8069 3674 8075

EXPERIMENTAL

DS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1115 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009

VAZ014-016-017-022-220415-
CARROLL VA-FLOYD VA-MONTGOMERY VA-ROANOKE VA-
1115 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CARROLL...FLOYD...MONTGOMERY AND
ROANOKE COUNTIES...

AT 1114 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM PILOT TO
7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WILLIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR SHAWSVILLE AROUND 1130 PM...
ELLISTON-LAFAYETTE AROUND 1145 PM...GLENVAR AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CHECK
AROUND 1215 AM.

LAT...LON 3725 8035 3732 8015 3723 8009 3705 8018
      3684 8041 3674 8066 3711 8046

EXPERIMENTAL

DS