Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Blacksburg, VA

000 
WGUS71 KRNK 090410
FFSRNK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1210 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009

VAC021-071-185-WVC055-063-089-090730-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-090509T0730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BLAND VA-TAZEWELL VA-GILES VA-MERCER WV-MONROE WV-SUMMERS WV-
1210 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 AM EDT FOR 
SOUTHERN SUMMERS...SOUTHWESTERN MONROE...MERCER...WESTERN GILES...
TAZEWELL...AND BLAND COUNTY...

AT MIDNIGHT EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED 
TO INDICATE A THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.  THESE 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND INTO THE WARNED AREA. 
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN RUNOFF 
THAT WILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BLUEFIELD... 
PRINCETON...HINTON...NARROWS...BLAND...AND TAZEWELL.

SINCE 10:00 PM...HEAVY RAIN HAS RESULTED IN MUDSLIDES OVER WESTERN 
MERCER COUNTY...NEAR MONTCALM WEST VIRGINIA...WHICH IS JUST WEST 
OF PRINCETON. THE GROUND IS SATURATED IN THIS AREA AND STREAMS ARE 
REPORTED AS BANK FULL.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN THIS AREA MAY RESULT 
IN SEVERE FLOODING AND ADDITIONAL MUDSLIDES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE 
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS. 

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS 
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.  IF YOU ARE 
TRAVELING...WATCH OUT FOR MUDSLIDES WHICH MAY PARTIALLY OR 
COMPLETELY BLOCK THE HIGHWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3719 8183 3720 8178 3725 8175 3721 8167
      3721 8154 3726 8149 3728 8142 3742 8129
      3749 8127 3752 8121 3757 8120 3760 8109
      3765 8107 3769 8098 3772 8097 3766 8081
      3725 8061 3712 8093 3697 8177 3713 8191

$$

PEM

000 
WGUS71 KRNK 090642
FFSRNK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
242 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009

VAC021-071-185-WVC055-063-089-090730-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-090509T0730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BLAND VA-TAZEWELL VA-GILES VA-MERCER WV-MONROE WV-SUMMERS WV-
242 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 AM EDT FOR
SOUTHERN SUMMERS...SOUTHWESTERN MONROE...MERCER...WESTERN GILES...
NORTHEASTERN TAZEWELL AND NORTHERN BLAND COUNTIES...

AT 230 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER NORTHERN MERCER 
AND SOUTHERN SUMMERS COUNTIES IN WEST VIRGINIA. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
OVER THESE AREAS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.  AS A RESULT THIS FLASH 
FLOOD WARNING WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY 
MORNING. 

RADAR ESTIMATES THAT UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN 
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN MERCER COUNTY.  AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAIN IS 
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 3:00 AND 5:00 AM. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
BLUEFIELD...PRINCETON...CAMP CREEK STATE PARK...HINTON...AND 
NARROWS. 

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF 
MUDSLIDES.  THE SATURATED GROUND MAY RESULT IN SUDDEN EARTH 
MOVEMENTS...ESPECIALLY STEEP EMBANKMENTS NEAR HIGHWAYS.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 3742 8129 3749 8127 3752 8121 3757 8120
      3760 8109 3765 8107 3769 8098 3772 8097
      3766 8081 3725 8061 3718 8080 3712 8093
      3719 8125 3727 8142

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
907 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SAG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND REACH THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 9PM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF MCS HAS FADED...AND NOW THE
EMPHASIS WILL BE ON RENUED DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE REMNANT MCS. LLJ OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY IS ORIENTED SW-NE AND IS TRANSPORTING MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
INTO KENTUCKY. AS A RESULT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP IN THIS GENERAL AREA...THEN MOVING DOWNSTREAM INTO OUR
CWA. WAVES OF SHRA/TSRA WILL POUND THE AREA WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED
UNDER THE FLOOD WATCH...AND IF THIS CONTINUES...FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED.

ONGOING CONCERN WILL MAINLY BE FOR FLOODING BUT STILL CANT RULE
OUT SEVERE WIND OR HAIL FOR THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
IS A AN ISOLATED TORNADIC RISK...AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR OUR CWA...WEST OF RADFORD VA...UNTIL
2 AM EDT.

FFG INDICATES THAT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES WOULD
CAUSE FLOOD PROBLEMS. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL PROPAGATION OF THE
ACTIVITY THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD IN VA.
FOR NOW THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE ANCHORED
NORTH OF I-81...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

NOT SURE HOW MUCH DEBIS CLOUD AND SUBSIDENCE WILL EXIST SATURDAY.
WILL LEAVE THAT CHALLENGE FOR THE LATE NIGHT SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY. THE FRONT STALLS TOWARD THE GULF
COAST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG THE FRONT IN THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AREA OF LIFT INCHING INTO OUR CWA.
CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR ENHANCED LIFT.

PLAYED TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MAV GUID FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WHICH WAS COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ALONG WITH A NW TO N FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSITIVE ANOMALY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING SEA CONTINUES TO FAVOR A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE MOIST SOUTHERN STREAM.
LEANED POPS TOWARDS HPCGUIDE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH WAS A
BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECMWF ENS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
A WARM FRONT APPROACH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THEN...A COLD FRONT MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TOWARDS NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AND WARM DURING THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MCS MOVING INTO THE REGION AS OF 2330Z IS NEAR A KBLF-KBKW LINE.
TRENDS HAVE THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD.
EXPECT PRIMARILY MVFR-VFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT ISOLATED HEAVIER CELLS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIFR-IFR. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD...EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE AND SMALLER CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITIY.

THE BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY 05Z...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN AREA OF STATIFORM RAIN TO STALL OVER
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSRA AFTER
THIS TIME.

ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A
RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE JUST EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z TOMORROW EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA. THEN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FOR
TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR VAZ007-010-011-
     018>020.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR WVZ042>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJ
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...DS/JJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
722 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ009-012-013-015-016-092330-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-SMYTH-WYTHE-PULASKI-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-
722 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

...TORNADO WATCH 273 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ007-010-011-WVZ042-092330-
TAZEWELL-BLAND-GILES-MERCER-
722 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
...TORNADO WATCH 273 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY. THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL CONTINUE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ018>020-WVZ043>045-092330-
CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
722 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ014-017-022>024-092330-
MONTGOMERY-FLOYD-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
722 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND A DOWNPOUR OF RAIN TO THE
AREA TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS AN ISOLATED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-092330-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-YADKIN-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
722 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
647 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ007-009>013-015-016-WVZ042-090100-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-
WYTHE-PULASKI-GRAYSON-CARROLL-MERCER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON...
BOONE...WILKESBORO...TAZEWELL...MARION...BLAND...PEARISBURG...
WYTHEVILLE...PULASKI...INDEPENDENCE...WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...
VOLNEY...GALAX...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP
647 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT 40 MPH
AND OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BY MID EVENING. SOME
OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THAT COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING
IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AND
AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE EVENING.

VAZ014-017>020-022>024-WVZ043>045-090100-
MONTGOMERY-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-
ROCKBRIDGE-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RADFORD...BLACKSBURG...FLOYD...
NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...HOT SPRINGS...ROANOKE...SALEM...
FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...HINTON...HIX...UNION...LEWISBURG...
QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
647 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT 40 MPH
AND OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO WESTERN
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...GREENBRIER VALLEY...AND
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS BY MID EVENING. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THAT COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS
OF POOR DRAINAGE. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AND AREAL
COVERAGE BY LATE EVENING.

WERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
859 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

VAZ007-009>014-WVZ042>044-090200-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-MERCER-
SUMMERS-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAZEWELL...MARION...BLAND...
PEARISBURG...WYTHEVILLE...PULASKI...RADFORD...BLACKSBURG...
BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...UNION
859 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

...MORE HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH 10 PM. THE RAIN WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH UP TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE. ALSO...FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WILL MAY
OCCUR IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

THOSE LIVING FROM THE BLACKSBURG TO MARION AREA...NORTH TO HINTON
AND BLUEFIELD...SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER. BE PREPARED TO
TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.