Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
138 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
STALLING JUST SOUTH OF REGION. A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
THURSDAY. SYSTEM EXITS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM MODELS ALL SHOW SOME MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AND VERY WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  AS A RESULT HAVE PUT IN LIKELY
SHOWERS/THUNDER THEN.  AFTER SUN LEAVES THIS EVENING ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIE.  PRECIPITATION COMING IN WITH FRONT AGAIN
WEDNESDAY.  GFS FASTEST WITH FRONT PUSHING SOUTH BUT LIKE A LITTLE
SLOWER PUSH SO HAVE GONE WITH HIGHER MIN TEMPS TONIGHT THEN MAV
SHOWING.  SLIGHT CHC SVR WEDNESDAY BUT FRONT LOCATION IN AFTERNOON
WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. 850 MB FRONT LAGS WELL BEHIND THE SURFACE
FRONT...COMPLICATING THE FORECAST CONSIDERABLY. BELIEVE THAT MOST OF
THE AREA WILL SEE PRECIPITATION...SO INCREASED POPS. TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS ANOTHER ISSUE...SO STAYED FAIRLY GENERIC.

THE FRONT THEN STALLS SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY.

SYSTEM PULLS OF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY...BUT SOME MOISTURE REMAINS IN
THE SOUTHEAST AND COULD FIRE SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BY FRIDAY THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER MAKES A RETURN AS WE GET IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERLIES
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. STAYED CLOSED TO HPC
GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THERE IS LITTLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CAUSE LOW CIGS.  SOME LIGHT FOG NEAR RIVER
VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAWN.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS
WILL BE IN SE OHIO MID DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AAR/TJT
NEAR TERM...AAR
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...MDP/TJT
AVIATION...AAR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
448 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2009

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>008-013>018-024>030-
033>039-046-047-030900-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-
LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-LINCOLN-
PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-
UPSHUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
448 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS. DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW LOCALIZED
FLOODING PROBLEMS. IF A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT BECOMES APPARENT...A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS.

ALSO...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD STILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ066-067-075-076-WVZ009>011-019-020-031-032-040-030900-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-RITCHIE-
DODDRIDGE-HARRISON-TAYLOR-BARBOUR-
448 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS. DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW LOCALIZED
FLOODING PROBLEMS. IF A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT BECOMES APPARENT...A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS.

ALSO...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD STILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
247 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2009

OHZ086-087-021915-
GALLIA-LAWRENCE-
247 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL LAWRENCE AND WEST
CENTRAL GALLIA COUNTIES...

AT 246 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR LAKE VESUVIUS...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR AID AROUND 310 PM AND WATERLOO AROUND 315 PM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

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