Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
735 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES
SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEXT COLD MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS ALONG FRONT THAT WASHED OUT ACROSS CNTRL WV TODAY HAVE NOT
COMPLETELY GONE AWAY...WITH NEW SHOWERS ALREADY FORMING ALONG THIS
AXIS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.  EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND IN ADVANCE OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM W KY...ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE
CWA...THEN WORKING E THIS EVENING.

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PW VALUES AND INSTABILITY...WITH THE
JUICIEST AIR TO THE W.  FREEZING LEVEL AND STRENGTH OF FLOW CAN
STILL SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND IN AND NEAR NE KY
WHERE SLT RISK IS.  USED NEWLY WRITTEN EDIT AREA FROM MODEL
PARAMETER TOOL TO HELP WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF HIGHEST POPS AND
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION HANGING ON
A LITTLE LONGER IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE N.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING ABOUT CLEARING.

GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH A BLEND
WHERE DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN A HTS-CRW-EKN AXIS SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE SE U.S. REMAINS IN CONTROL. THIS WILL CREATE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME AFTERNOON CU...AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY IN THE EXTENDED AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST...AND FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NAM CONTINUES TO BE FASTER WITH THE FRONT NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH IS SLOWER
WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE...BRINGING THE FRONT INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH
OF THE REGION.  THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH
HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW.
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION AT THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT TO SAG DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDTIONS
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MVFR OR WORSE LOW CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO FORM ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHERE IT RAINS THIS
EVENING. FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE...HAVE CONTINUED MVFR AT EKN. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND OUT OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY KEEPING PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR A LITTLE
LONGER. MORNING LOW STRATUS IS LIKELY TO AFFECT MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
MORNING BUT...BY MIDDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 00Z SUNDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WX EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL/ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1226 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2009

OHZ066-067-075-076-WVZ010-011-038-046-047-010430-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-PLEASANTS-TYLER-WEBSTER-POCAHONTAS-
RANDOLPH-
1226 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>009-013>020-024>037-039-
040-010430-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-
LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-
LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-
LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-
WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-
1226 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 316 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
1159 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     HAIL             HUNTINGTON              38.40N 82.36W
05/30/2009  U0.75 INCH       CABELL             WV   PUBLIC

NNNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
1207 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1141 PM     HAIL             CHARLEY                 37.98N 82.59W
05/30/2009  U1.00 INCH       LAWRENCE           KY   PUBLIC

&&

NNNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1231 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2009

WVZ006>008-014>016-310530-
CABELL-JACKSON-KANAWHA-MASON-PUTNAM-ROANE-
1231 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CABELL...NORTHERN
KANAWHA...PUTNAM...ROANE...SOUTHERN JACKSON AND SOUTHERN MASON
COUNTIES...

AT 1230 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR BUFFALO...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR ELEANOR AROUND 1240 AM...WINFIELD...AND TEAYS
VALLEY AROUND 1245 AM...BANCROFT AROUND 1250 AM...POCA...AND NITRO
AROUND 1255 AM...LIBERTY...CROSS LANES...AND INSTITUTE AROUND 100 AM
AND DUNBAR AROUND 105 AM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
1249 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LENORE                  37.81N 82.23W
05/31/2009                   MINGO              WV   PUBLIC

            ROUGHLY 7 INCH DIAMETER BRANCH BROKEN.

&&

NNNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1258 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 PM     HAIL             8 E WEST UNION          39.30N 80.63W
05/30/2009  E0.88 INCH       DODDRIDGE          WV   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ALONG RT50 NEAR SALEM

&&

JS

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